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Predictions › United States › Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals
NHLWed 7 Oct, 19:30 United States time

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals prediction

Capital One Arena

Pittsburgh PenguinsAway
2.9 : 3.5
projected goals
Washington CapitalsHome
42%Penguins
58%Capitals
Eagle safe pickPenguins +1.5
-175

Quick answer

Our prediction for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals is Washington Capitals to win, with a 58% chance. We project Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9 and Washington Capitals 3.5. Our best bet is Penguins +1.5 at -175.

Prediction
Washington Capitals to win
Chance
58%
Projected score
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 3
Projected total
6.4 goals
Best bet
Penguins +1.5 at -175

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Penguins +1.5
64% chancePrice -175+0.5% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Washington Capitals 58% and Pittsburgh Penguins 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Washington Capitals the favourite at -170.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Washington Capitals won 4 of their last 5 and Pittsburgh Penguins won 2 of their last 5. Washington Capitals come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Washington Capitals won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Pittsburgh Penguins won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Washington Capitals score 3.5 goals a game and let in 2.6. Pittsburgh Penguins score 3.4 and let in 3.5. Their recent games average 6.2 and 6.8 goals in total, and the market line is 6.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Washington Capitals won 2 and Pittsburgh Penguins won 1. The last one ended Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Penguins +1.5 has a 64% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Capitalsrest between games-5%
  • Penguinsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Washington Capitals host Pittsburgh Penguins in the NHL on Wed 7 Oct, 19:30 at Capital One Arena. Our prediction for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals is Washington Capitals to win, with a 58% chance. We project Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9 and Washington Capitals 3.5. Our best bet is Penguins +1.5 at -175.

Washington Capitals form

Washington Capitals have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 70 goals scored and 53 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Pittsburgh Penguins form

Pittsburgh Penguins have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 68 goals scored and 69 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Washington Capitals won 2, Pittsburgh Penguins won 1. Last time out it finished Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 0.

Our call

We expect Pittsburgh Penguins to score about 2.9 goals and Washington Capitals about 3.5. That points to Washington Capitals to win. Our safest bet is Penguins +1.5 at -175.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CapitalsPenguins
Games played2020
Wins149
Losses611
Goals scored7068
Goals conceded5369
Scored per game3.53.4
Conceded per game2.63.5
Home record7W 2L5W 5L
Away record7W 4L4W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Capitals to win58%-139-170-7.5%
Penguins to win36%+175+142-11.9%
Capitals -1.533%+200+145-18.4%
Penguins +1.564%-178-175+0.5%
Over 6.5 goals44%+125+114-5.1%
Under 6.5 goals49%+103-135-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Capitals spreadCoversFair
Capitals -1.535%+182
Capitals -0.552%-107
Capitals +0.568%-210
Total goalsOverUnder
5.565%35%
6.547%53%
7.531%69%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Capitals +3.5 wins if Capitals win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Penguins forward Kuzmenko steps away after father killed in Russia

Pittsburgh Penguins forward Andrei Kuzmenko has taken a leave of absence after his father, Alexander, was tragically killed by a bear in Russia.

24 Sept 2026
NHL

Capitals Sign Justin Sourdif to Eight Year Contract Extension

The Washington Capitals have signed forward Justin Sourdif to an eight year contract extension worth 6.35 million dollars annually.

16 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals?

Our prediction for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals is Washington Capitals to win, with a 58% chance. We project Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9 and Washington Capitals 3.5. Our best bet is Penguins +1.5 at -175.

What is the projected score for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals?

We project Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9 and Washington Capitals 3.5, about 6.4 goals in total.

How are Washington Capitals playing?

Washington Capitals have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 70 goals scored and 53 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Pittsburgh Penguins playing?

Pittsburgh Penguins have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 68 goals scored and 69 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins last met?

It ended Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 0. In the last 3 meetings Washington Capitals won 2 and Pittsburgh Penguins won 1.

What is the best bet for Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals?

Penguins +1.5 at -175, with a 64% chance. That price pays about 0.5% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Capitals against Penguins. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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