Predictions › United Kingdom › Preston North End vs Millwall
ChampionshipSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Preston North End vs Millwall prediction

Deepdale

Preston North EndHome
1.26 : 1.48
expected goals
MillwallAway
32%Preston
27%Draw
42%Millwall
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Preston North End vs Millwall is Millwall to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Millwall to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Preston North End 1.3, Millwall 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Preston North End 32%, the draw 27% and Millwall 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Millwall the favourite at 6/4.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Preston North End took 4 points from their last 5 games and Millwall took 5 from 5. Millwall come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Preston North End won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Millwall won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Preston North End score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.9. Millwall score 1.4 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Preston North End games and 10 of Millwall games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Preston North End won 0 and Millwall won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Preston North End 0, Millwall 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Prestonrecent form-3%
  • Millwallrecent form-1%
Preston form D L L W LMillwall form D D L L WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Preston North End vs Millwall: Millwall shade it

The big picture

Preston North End host Millwall in the Championship on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Deepdale. Our prediction for Preston North End vs Millwall is Millwall to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Preston North End form

Preston North End have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Millwall form

Millwall have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Preston North End won 0, Millwall won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Preston North End 0, Millwall 2.

Our call

We expect Preston North End to score about 1.3 goals and Millwall about 1.5. That points to Millwall to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PrestonMillwall
Games played2020
Wins48
Draws46
Losses126
Goals scored2228
Goals conceded3924
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game1.91.2
Home record2W 2D 6L4W 1D 4L
Away record2W 2D 6L4W 5D 2L
Clean sheets0%40%
Both teams scored70%45%
Over 2.5 goals70%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Preston North End to win30%9/47/4-17.8%
A Draw26%11/412/5-11.2%
Millwall to win39%8/56/4-5.4%
Over 2.5 goals48%21/204/5-13.0%
Under 2.5 goals45%6/510/11-13.3%
Preston North End +0.557%8/111/2-14.9%
Millwall -0.537%13/85/4-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%3/10
Over 2.5 goals52%10/11
Over 3.5 goals29%12/5
Both teams to score56%4/5
Preston North End or Draw58%8/11
Millwall or Draw68%4/9
Preston North End to win and Over 2.519%4/1
Millwall to win and Over 2.526%3/1
Preston North End clean sheet23%10/3
Millwall clean sheet28%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
1-28.9%
0-18.8%
2-17.6%
1-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Preston North End vs Millwall?

Our prediction for Preston North End vs Millwall is Millwall to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Preston North End vs Millwall?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Preston North End to score 1.3 goals and Millwall 1.5.

Will both teams score in Preston North End vs Millwall?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Preston North End last 20 games and 9 of Millwall last 20.

How are Preston North End playing?

Preston North End have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Millwall playing?

Millwall have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Preston North End and Millwall last met?

It ended Preston North End 0, Millwall 2. In the last 2 meetings Preston North End won 0 and Millwall won 1.

What is the best bet for Preston North End vs Millwall?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Preston against Millwall. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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