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Predictions › Spain › Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
LaLigaSat 21 Nov, 15:15 Spain time

Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia prediction

Estadio de Vallecas

Rayo VallecanoHome
1.47 : 1.02
expected goals
ValenciaAway
47%Rayo
28%Draw
26%Valencia
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Rayo Vallecano to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Rayo Vallecano 1.5, Valencia 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.871 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Rayo Vallecano 47%, the draw 28% and Valencia 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 1.95.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Rayo Vallecano took 5 points from their last 5 games and Valencia took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Rayo Vallecano won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Valencia won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Valencia score 1.0 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Rayo Vallecano games and 9 of Valencia games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 0 and Valencia won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Valencia 1, Rayo Vallecano 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Rayo form L W W L DValencia form W L W L DHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: Rayo Vallecano are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Rayo Vallecano host Valencia in the LaLiga on Sat 21 Nov, 15:15 at Estadio de Vallecas. Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Rayo Vallecano form

Rayo Vallecano have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Valencia form

Valencia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Rayo Vallecano won 0, Valencia won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Valencia 1, Rayo Vallecano 1.

Our call

We expect Rayo Vallecano to score about 1.5 goals and Valencia about 1.0. That points to Rayo Vallecano to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.5 at 3.87.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RayoValencia
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws65
Losses69
Goals scored2820
Goals conceded2830
Scored per game1.41.0
Conceded per game1.41.5
Home record5W 3D 1L2W 3D 6L
Away record3W 3D 5L4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored60%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Rayo Vallecano to win44%2.271.95-14.0%
A Draw27%3.673.40-7.4%
Valencia to win25%4.003.75-6.2%
Over 2.5 goals44%2.292.00-12.6%
Under 2.5 goals49%2.031.74-14.1%
Rayo Vallecano -0.545%2.221.87-15.7%
Valencia +0.548%2.081.77-15.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals45%2.20
Over 3.5 goals24%4.15
Both teams to score50%2.00
Rayo Vallecano or Draw74%1.34
Valencia or Draw53%1.88
Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.526%3.79
Valencia to win and Over 2.514%7.39
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet36%2.78
Valencia clean sheet23%4.35

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
1-011.4%
2-19.1%
0-09.0%
2-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
LaLiga

Harvey Elliott Sent Off as Valencia Lose Late Against Villarreal

Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott received two yellow cards in under a minute as Valencia lost 2-1 to Villarreal in LaLiga on Saturday.

25 Oct 2026
LaLiga

Valencia Eye Former Mexico Coach Javier Aguirre for Manager Vacancy

Valencia are in advanced talks with Javier Aguirre to take over as manager after a poor start to the season.

19 Sept 2026
LaLiga

Valencia Sacks Coach Carlos Corberan and CEO Ron Gourlay

Valencia has dismissed coach Carlos Corberan and CEO Ron Gourlay with the team winless and sitting bottom of LaLiga.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Rayo Vallecano to score 1.5 goals and Valencia 1.0.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Rayo Vallecano last 20 games and 9 of Valencia last 20.

How are Rayo Vallecano playing?

Rayo Vallecano have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

How are Valencia playing?

Valencia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Rayo Vallecano and Valencia last met?

It ended Valencia 1, Rayo Vallecano 1. In the last 2 meetings Rayo Vallecano won 0 and Valencia won 0.

What is the best bet for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rayo against Valencia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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