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Predictions › Spain › Real Madrid vs Villarreal
LaLigaSat 10 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction

Santiago Bernabéu

Real MadridHome
2.67 : 1.15
expected goals
VillarrealAway
69%Real Madrid
17%Draw
14%Villarreal
Eagle safe pickReal Madrid to win
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Real Madrid vs Villarreal is Real Madrid to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Real Madrid to win at 1.33.

Prediction
Real Madrid to win
Chance
69%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Real Madrid 2.7, Villarreal 1.1
Best bet
Real Madrid to win at 1.33
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Real Madrid to win
71% chancePrice 1.331 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Real Madrid to win and both score
37% chanceFair price 2.681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Real Madrid 69%, the draw 17% and Villarreal 14%. The bookmakers agree and make Real Madrid the favourite at 1.33.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Real Madrid took 9 points from their last 5 games and Villarreal took 6 from 5. Real Madrid come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Real Madrid won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Villarreal won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Real Madrid score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Villarreal score 1.9 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Real Madrid games and 14 of Villarreal games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Real Madrid won 2 and Villarreal won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Villarreal 0, Real Madrid 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Real Madrid to win has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Real Madridrecent form+1%
  • Villarrealrecent form-1%
Real Madrid form L W W W LVillarreal form W W L L LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Real Madrid are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Real Madrid host Villarreal in the LaLiga on Sat 10 Oct, 19:00 at Santiago Bernabéu. Our prediction for Real Madrid vs Villarreal is Real Madrid to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Real Madrid to win at 1.33.

Real Madrid form

Real Madrid have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Villarreal form

Villarreal have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Real Madrid won 2, Villarreal won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Villarreal 0, Real Madrid 2.

Our call

We expect Real Madrid to score about 2.7 goals and Villarreal about 1.1. That points to Real Madrid to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Real Madrid to win at 1.33. Our bold bet is Real Madrid to win and both score at 2.68.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Real MadridVillarreal
Games played2020
Wins128
Draws25
Losses67
Goals scored4139
Goals conceded2630
Scored per game2.01.9
Conceded per game1.31.5
Home record8W 1D 1L6W 0D 3L
Away record4W 1D 5L2W 5D 4L
Clean sheets20%0%
Both teams scored70%85%
Over 2.5 goals65%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Real Madrid to win71%1.421.33-5.9%
A Draw17%5.895.75-2.3%
Villarreal to win14%7.247.00-3.3%
Over 3.5 goals50%2.001.74-12.8%
Under 3.5 goals44%2.302.00-13.0%
Real Madrid -1.547%2.131.77-16.8%
Villarreal +1.547%2.151.83-14.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals90%1.11
Over 2.5 goals73%1.36
Over 3.5 goals53%1.89
Both teams to score64%1.56
Real Madrid or Draw86%1.16
Villarreal or Draw31%3.24
Real Madrid to win and Over 2.556%1.79
Villarreal to win and Over 2.510%9.83
Real Madrid clean sheet32%3.16
Villarreal clean sheet7%14.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.0%
3-18.0%
2-07.8%
1-17.2%
3-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
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Real Madrid target Virgil van Dijk as contract talks stall

Real Madrid are tracking Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk as they look to secure the veteran on a free transfer.

15 hours ago
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Real Madrid expect Kylian Mbappe, Ibrahima Konate and Fede Valverde to recover from injuries in time to face Barcelona on Oct. 25.

29 Sept 2026
LaLiga

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Barcelona striker Raphinha has had a brilliant start to the season, but a striker in Latvia currently leads the race for the European Golden Shoe.

25 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Our prediction for Real Madrid vs Villarreal is Real Madrid to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Real Madrid to win at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 3-1 and 2-0. We expect Real Madrid to score 2.7 goals and Villarreal 1.1.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Real Madrid last 20 games and 17 of Villarreal last 20.

How are Real Madrid playing?

Real Madrid have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Villarreal playing?

Villarreal have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Real Madrid and Villarreal last met?

It ended Villarreal 0, Real Madrid 2. In the last 2 meetings Real Madrid won 2 and Villarreal won 0.

What is the best bet for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Real Madrid to win at 1.33, with a 71% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Real Madrid against Villarreal. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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