Predictions › United Kingdom › Sunderland vs Chelsea

Premier LeagueSun 8 Nov, 14:00 United Kingdom time

Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction

Stadium of Light

SunderlandHome

1.10 : 1.41

expected goals

ChelseaAway

29%Sunderland

28%Draw

43%Chelsea

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Chelsea to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.1, Chelsea 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sunderland 29%, the draw 28% and Chelsea 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Chelsea the favourite at 11/10.
2
Recent form
Sunderland took 8 points from their last 5 games and Chelsea took 7 from 5. Sunderland come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sunderland won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Chelsea won 2 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Goals
Sunderland score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.5. Chelsea score 1.6 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Sunderland games and 12 of Chelsea games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Sunderland won 2 and Chelsea won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sunderland 2, Chelsea 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sunderlandrest between games-5%
Chelsearest between games-5%

Sunderland form D D D L WChelsea form D L W W LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sunderland vs Chelsea: Chelsea shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sunderland host Chelsea in the Premier League on Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 at Stadium of Light. Our prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

Sunderland form

Sunderland have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Chelsea form

Chelsea have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sunderland won 2, Chelsea won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sunderland 2, Chelsea 1.

Our call

We expect Sunderland to score about 1.1 goals and Chelsea about 1.4. That points to Chelsea to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sunderland	Chelsea
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	8
Draws	5	3
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	24	32
Goals conceded	30	34
Scored per game	1.2	1.6
Conceded per game	1.5	1.7
Home record	6W 2D 3L	6W 1D 5L
Away record	2W 3D 4L	2W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sunderland to win	28%	13/5	9/4	-9.6%
A Draw	27%	13/5	12/5	-6.9%
Chelsea to win	42%	11/8	11/10	-11.4%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	6/5	5/6	-13.9%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	11/10	5/6	-10.6%
Sunderland +0.5	51%	Evens	4/6	-16.6%
Chelsea -0.5	43%	11/8	Evens	-13.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	2/5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	6/5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	3/1
Both teams to score	51%	Evens
Sunderland or Draw	57%	4/5
Chelsea or Draw	71%	2/5
Sunderland to win and Over 2.5	15%	11/2
Chelsea to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Sunderland clean sheet	24%	3/1
Chelsea clean sheet	33%	2/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%

0-110.7%

0-08.9%

1-28.9%

1-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Xabi Alonso asks for patience over Chelsea winger Estêvão

Chelsea coach Xabi Alonso insists 19 year old winger Estêvão will get his chance despite playing only 172 minutes so far this season.

6 hours ago

Premier League

Nicolas Jackson Shines For Aston Villa As Chelsea Struggles Mount

Nicolas Jackson scored twice as Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2-1, while Chelsea suffered a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham.

27 Oct 2026

Premier League

Chelsea Back Mike Penders After Defeat to Tottenham

Xabi Alonso and Maxence Lacroix have supported young goalkeeper Mike Penders after his own goal contributed to a 2-0 home loss against Tottenham.

26 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Sunderland to score 1.1 goals and Chelsea 1.4.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Sunderland last 20 games and 11 of Chelsea last 20.

How are Sunderland playing?

How are Chelsea playing?

What happened when Sunderland and Chelsea last met?

It ended Sunderland 2, Chelsea 1. In the last 2 meetings Sunderland won 2 and Chelsea won 0.

What is the best bet for Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Under 3.5 goals at 3/10, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sunderland against Chelsea. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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