Predictions › United Kingdom › Sunderland vs Leeds United

Premier LeagueSun 25 Oct, 16:30 United Kingdom time

Sunderland vs Leeds United prediction

Stadium of Light

SunderlandHome

0.96 : 1.13

expected goals

Leeds UnitedAway

30%Sunderland

32%Draw

38%Leeds

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Leeds United is Leeds United to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/5.

Prediction: Leeds United to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.0, Leeds United 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1/5
Both teams to score: 43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1/52 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 6/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sunderland 30%, the draw 32% and Leeds United 38%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Sunderland took 6 points from their last 5 games and Leeds United took 5 from 5. Sunderland come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sunderland won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Leeds United won 3 of their last 12 on the road.
4
Goals
Sunderland score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Leeds United score 1.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Sunderland games and 10 of Leeds United games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Sunderland won 1 and Leeds United won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Leeds United 0, Sunderland 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Sunderlandrecent form-3%
Leedsrecent form-1%
Sunderlandrest between games-5%

Sunderland form D L L W LLeeds form L D W L DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sunderland vs Leeds United: Leeds United shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sunderland host Leeds United in the Premier League on Sun 25 Oct, 16:30 at Stadium of Light. Our prediction for Sunderland vs Leeds United is Leeds United to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/5.

Sunderland form

Sunderland have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Leeds United form

Leeds United have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sunderland won 1, Leeds United won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Leeds United 0, Sunderland 1.

Our call

We expect Sunderland to score about 1.0 goals and Leeds United about 1.1. That points to Leeds United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/5. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sunderland	Leeds
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	3	8
Losses	8	4
Goals scored	23	30
Goals conceded	28	22
Scored per game	1.1	1.5
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	5W 1D 4L	5W 3D 0L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	3W 5D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	63%	8/13
Over 2.5 goals	35%	15/8
Over 3.5 goals	16%	11/2
Both teams to score	43%	11/8
Sunderland or Draw	62%	8/13
Leeds United or Draw	70%	4/9
Sunderland to win and Over 2.5	13%	13/2
Leeds United to win and Over 2.5	17%	9/2
Sunderland clean sheet	32%	85/40
Leeds United clean sheet	38%	13/8

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.2%

0-013.2%

0-113.1%

1-011.1%

0-27.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Arsenal Fight Back Against Leeds Amid Manchester City Uncertainty

Bruno Guimaraes came off the bench to score the winner as Arsenal rallied for a 2-1 victory over Leeds United at the Emirates.

10 Oct 2026

Premier League

Arteta Hails Arsenal Response After Victory Against Leeds

Mikel Arteta praised Arsenal after a 2-1 win over Leeds United helped them move level with Manchester City at the top.

10 Oct 2026

Premier League

Premier League Panel Backs Controversial Referee Decisions

A Premier League panel has backed refereeing decisions in recent matches involving Manchester City and Everton.

30 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds United?

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Leeds United is Leeds United to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/5.

What is the score prediction for Sunderland vs Leeds United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 0-1. We expect Sunderland to score 1.0 goals and Leeds United 1.1.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Sunderland last 20 games and 10 of Leeds United last 20.

How are Sunderland playing?

How are Leeds United playing?

What happened when Sunderland and Leeds United last met?

It ended Leeds United 0, Sunderland 1. In the last 2 meetings Sunderland won 1 and Leeds United won 0.

What is the best bet for Sunderland vs Leeds United?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/5, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sunderland against Leeds. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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