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Predictions › United States › Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres
NHLWed 11 Nov, 19:00 United States time

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres prediction

KeyBank Center

Tampa Bay LightningAway
3.4 : 3.2
projected goals
Buffalo SabresHome
56%Lightning
44%Sabres
Eagle safe pickSabres +2
-408

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4 and Buffalo Sabres 3.2. Our best bet is Sabres +2 at -408.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
56%
Projected score
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Buffalo Sabres 3
Projected total
6.5 goals
Best bet
Sabres +2 at -408

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Sabres +2
80% chanceFair price -4082 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sabres to win
44% chanceFair price +1281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Buffalo Sabres 44% and Tampa Bay Lightning 56%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Buffalo Sabres won 3 of their last 5 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 of their last 5. Buffalo Sabres come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Buffalo Sabres won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Tampa Bay Lightning won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Buffalo Sabres score 3.1 goals a game and let in 3.3. Tampa Bay Lightning score 3.1 and let in 3.0. Their recent games average 6.4 and 6.0 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Buffalo Sabres won 3 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 1. The last one ended Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Sabres +2 has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sabresrest between games-5%
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres: Tampa Bay Lightning shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Buffalo Sabres host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Wed 11 Nov, 19:00 at KeyBank Center. Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4 and Buffalo Sabres 3.2. Our best bet is Sabres +2 at -408.

Buffalo Sabres form

Buffalo Sabres have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 62 goals scored and 66 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 62 goals scored and 59 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Buffalo Sabres won 3, Tampa Bay Lightning won 1. Last time out it finished Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.

Our call

We expect Tampa Bay Lightning to score about 3.4 goals and Buffalo Sabres about 3.2. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Sabres +2 at -408. Our bold bet is Sabres to win at +128.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SabresLightning
Games played2020
Wins911
Losses119
Goals scored6262
Goals conceded6659
Scored per game3.13.1
Conceded per game3.33.0
Home record4W 5L7W 3L
Away record5W 6L4W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Sabres spreadCoversFair
Sabres -0.538%+160
Sabres +0.555%-121
Sabres +1.570%-239
Total goalsOverUnder
5.567%33%
6.551%49%
7.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Sabres +3.5 wins if Sabres win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Nikita Kucherov Requests Trade Away From Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning star forward Nikita Kucherov has requested a trade after contract negotiations stalled on Friday.

31 Oct 2026
NHL

Nikita Kucherov Takes Top Spot on Lightning All Time Scoring List

Nikita Kucherov surpassed Steven Stamkos to become Tampa Bay's all time scoring leader on Saturday night against Utah.

25 Oct 2026
NHL

Rasmus Dahlin Leaves Early With Injury Against Florida

Buffalo captain Rasmus Dahlin left Monday with an injury. Florida also saw goalie Jacob Markstrom exit early.

12 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres?

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4 and Buffalo Sabres 3.2. Our best bet is Sabres +2 at -408.

What is the projected score for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres?

We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4 and Buffalo Sabres 3.2, about 6.5 goals in total.

How are Buffalo Sabres playing?

Buffalo Sabres have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 62 goals scored and 66 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 62 goals scored and 59 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Buffalo Sabres and Tampa Bay Lightning last met?

It ended Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2. In the last 4 meetings Buffalo Sabres won 3 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 1.

What is the best bet for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres?

Sabres +2 at -408, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sabres against Lightning. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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