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Predictions › United States › TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears
College FootballSat 17 Oct, 19:00 United States time

TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears prediction

McLane Stadium

TCU Horned FrogsAway
18.3 : 29.8
projected points
Baylor BearsHome
24%TCU
76%Baylor
Eagle safe pickBaylor to win
-315

Quick answer

Our prediction for TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears is Baylor Bears to win, with a 76% chance. We project TCU Horned Frogs 18.3 and Baylor Bears 29.8. Our best bet is Baylor to win at -315.

Prediction
Baylor Bears to win
Chance
76%
Projected score
TCU Horned Frogs 18, Baylor Bears 30
Projected total
48.1 points
Best bet
Baylor to win at -315

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Baylor to win
76% chanceFair price -3152 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Baylor Bears 76% and TCU Horned Frogs 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Baylor Bears won 4 of their last 5 and TCU Horned Frogs won 2 of their last 5. Baylor Bears come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Baylor Bears won 6 of their last 9 games at home. TCU Horned Frogs won 2 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Baylor Bears score 31.7 points a game and let in 25.3. TCU Horned Frogs score 28.1 and let in 22.5. Their recent games average 56.9 and 50.6 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Baylor Bears won 0 and TCU Horned Frogs won 1. The last one ended TCU Horned Frogs 42, Baylor Bears 36.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Baylor to win has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears: Baylor Bears are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Baylor Bears host TCU Horned Frogs in the College Football on Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 at McLane Stadium. Our prediction for TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears is Baylor Bears to win, with a 76% chance. We project TCU Horned Frogs 18.3 and Baylor Bears 29.8. Our best bet is Baylor to win at -315.

Baylor Bears form

Baylor Bears have 8 wins and 7 losses in their last 15 games, with 475 points scored and 379 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

TCU Horned Frogs form

TCU Horned Frogs have 10 wins and 7 losses in their last 17 games, with 478 points scored and 382 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 4 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Baylor Bears won 0, TCU Horned Frogs won 1. Last time out it finished TCU Horned Frogs 42, Baylor Bears 36.

Our call

We expect TCU Horned Frogs to score about 18.3 points and Baylor Bears about 29.8. That points to Baylor Bears to win. Our safest bet is Baylor to win at -315.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 17 games in all competitions.

BaylorTCU
Games played1517
Wins810
Losses77
Points scored475478
Points conceded379382
Scored per game31.728.1
Conceded per game25.322.5
Home record6W 3L8W 3L
Away record2W 4L2W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Baylor spreadCoversFair
Baylor -18.533%+203
Baylor -14.542%+136
Baylor -11.550%+100
Baylor -8.557%-134
Baylor -4.567%-201
Total pointsOverUnder
41.566%34%
45.556%44%
48.549%51%
51.542%58%
55.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Baylor +3.5 wins if Baylor win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
College Football

Baylor Quarterback DJ Lagway Expected to Return Against Colorado

Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway is expected to return from an ankle injury this Saturday to face Colorado.

24 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears?

Our prediction for TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears is Baylor Bears to win, with a 76% chance. We project TCU Horned Frogs 18.3 and Baylor Bears 29.8. Our best bet is Baylor to win at -315.

What is the projected score for TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears?

We project TCU Horned Frogs 18.3 and Baylor Bears 29.8, about 48.1 points in total.

How are Baylor Bears playing?

Baylor Bears have 8 wins and 7 losses in their last 15 games, with 475 points scored and 379 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are TCU Horned Frogs playing?

TCU Horned Frogs have 10 wins and 7 losses in their last 17 games, with 478 points scored and 382 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 4 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Baylor Bears and TCU Horned Frogs last met?

It ended TCU Horned Frogs 42, Baylor Bears 36. In the last 1 meeting Baylor Bears won 0 and TCU Horned Frogs won 1.

What is the best bet for TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears?

Baylor to win at -315, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Baylor against TCU. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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