Predictions › United States › Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs
College FootballSat 21 Nov, 00:00 United States time

Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction

Amon G. Carter Stadium

Utah UtesAway
25.0 : 20.3
projected points
TCU Horned FrogsHome
64%Utah
36%TCU
Eagle safe pickTCU +15.5
-314

Quick answer

Our prediction for Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs is Utah Utes to win, with a 64% chance. We project Utah Utes 25.0 and TCU Horned Frogs 20.3. Our best bet is TCU +15.5 at -314.

Prediction
Utah Utes to win
Chance
64%
Projected score
Utah Utes 25, TCU Horned Frogs 20
Projected total
45.3 points
Best bet
TCU +15.5 at -314

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

TCU +15.5
76% chanceFair price -3142 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

TCU to win
36% chancePrice +1701 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives TCU Horned Frogs 36% and Utah Utes 64%. The bookmakers agree and make Utah Utes the favourite at -205.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    TCU Horned Frogs won 2 of their last 5 and Utah Utes won 5 of their last 5. Utah Utes come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    TCU Horned Frogs won 8 of their last 12 games at home. Utah Utes won 7 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    TCU Horned Frogs score 26.1 points a game and let in 21.8. Utah Utes score 38.5 and let in 18.7. Their recent games average 48.0 and 57.2 points in total, and the market line is 44.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    TCU +15.5 has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs: Utah Utes are favourites

The big picture

TCU Horned Frogs host Utah Utes in the College Football on Sat 21 Nov, 00:00 at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Our prediction for Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs is Utah Utes to win, with a 64% chance. We project Utah Utes 25.0 and TCU Horned Frogs 20.3. Our best bet is TCU +15.5 at -314.

TCU Horned Frogs form

TCU Horned Frogs have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 523 points scored and 436 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Utah Utes form

Utah Utes have 18 wins and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 770 points scored and 374 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Utah Utes to score about 25.0 points and TCU Horned Frogs about 20.3. That points to Utah Utes to win. Our safest bet is TCU +15.5 at -314. Our bold bet is TCU to win at +170.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TCUUtah
Games played2020
Wins1118
Losses92
Points scored523770
Points conceded436374
Scored per game26.138.5
Conceded per game21.818.7
Home record8W 4L11W 1L
Away record3W 5L7W 1L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
TCU to win36%+181+170-4.0%
Utah to win60%-152-205-10.2%
TCU +5.548%+108-110-8.1%
Utah -5.545%+123-110-14.2%
Over 44.5 points48%+108-110-8.4%
Under 44.5 points45%+122-110-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

TCU spreadCoversFair
TCU -2.533%+205
TCU +1.542%+137
TCU +4.550%+101
TCU +7.557%-133
TCU +11.567%-199
Total pointsOverUnder
38.566%34%
42.557%43%
45.549%51%
48.542%58%
52.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. TCU +3.5 wins if TCU win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs?

Our prediction for Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs is Utah Utes to win, with a 64% chance. We project Utah Utes 25.0 and TCU Horned Frogs 20.3. Our best bet is TCU +15.5 at -314.

What is the projected score for Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs?

We project Utah Utes 25.0 and TCU Horned Frogs 20.3, about 45.3 points in total.

How are TCU Horned Frogs playing?

TCU Horned Frogs have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 523 points scored and 436 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Utah Utes playing?

Utah Utes have 18 wins and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 770 points scored and 374 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Utah Utes vs TCU Horned Frogs?

TCU +15.5 at -314, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in TCU against Utah. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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