Predictions › Spain › Valencia vs Athletic Club

LaLigaSat 17 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction

Mestalla Stadium

ValenciaHome

1.15 : 1.49

expected goals

Athletic ClubAway

29%Valencia

27%Draw

44%Athletic

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Valencia vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Athletic Club to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Valencia 1.1, Athletic Club 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Valencia 29%, the draw 27% and Athletic Club 44%. The bookmakers agree and make Athletic Club the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Valencia took 3 points from their last 5 games and Athletic Club took 8 from 5. Athletic Club come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Valencia won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Athletic Club won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Valencia score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.4. Athletic Club score 1.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Valencia games and 9 of Athletic Club games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Valencia won 2 and Athletic Club won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Athletic Club 0, Valencia 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Valenciarecent form-4%
Athleticrecent form+1%

Valencia form L W L L LAthletic form D D W W LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Valencia vs Athletic Club: Athletic Club shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Valencia host Athletic Club in the LaLiga on Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 at Mestalla Stadium. Our prediction for Valencia vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Valencia form

Valencia have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Athletic Club form

Athletic Club have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Valencia won 2, Athletic Club won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Athletic Club 0, Valencia 1.

Our call

We expect Valencia to score about 1.1 goals and Athletic Club about 1.5. That points to Athletic Club to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5 at 3.82.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Valencia	Athletic
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	6
Draws	3	4
Losses	9	10
Goals scored	24	23
Goals conceded	29	30
Scored per game	1.2	1.1
Conceded per game	1.4	1.5
Home record	4W 2D 5L	4W 3D 4L
Away record	4W 1D 4L	2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Valencia to win	28%	3.54	3.45	-2.6%
A Draw	27%	3.72	3.35	-10.0%
Athletic Club to win	41%	2.42	2.05	-15.3%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.27	2.00	-11.7%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.74	-14.5%
Valencia +0.5	51%	1.98	1.69	-14.5%
Athletic Club -0.5	43%	2.34	1.95	-16.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.34
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.03
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.66
Both teams to score	54%	1.86
Valencia or Draw	56%	1.80
Athletic Club or Draw	71%	1.40
Valencia to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.12
Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.78
Valencia clean sheet	23%	4.44
Athletic Club clean sheet	32%	3.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

0-19.9%

1-29.1%

0-27.9%

0-07.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

Valencia Eye Former Mexico Coach Javier Aguirre for Manager Vacancy

Valencia are in advanced talks with Javier Aguirre to take over as manager after a poor start to the season.

19 Sept 2026

LaLiga

Valencia Sacks Coach Carlos Corberan and CEO Ron Gourlay

Valencia has dismissed coach Carlos Corberan and CEO Ron Gourlay with the team winless and sitting bottom of LaLiga.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Valencia vs Athletic Club?

Our prediction for Valencia vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Valencia vs Athletic Club?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Valencia to score 1.1 goals and Athletic Club 1.5.

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Athletic Club?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Valencia last 20 games and 10 of Athletic Club last 20.

How are Valencia playing?

How are Athletic Club playing?

What happened when Valencia and Athletic Club last met?

It ended Athletic Club 0, Valencia 1. In the last 2 meetings Valencia won 2 and Athletic Club won 0.

What is the best bet for Valencia vs Athletic Club?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Valencia against Athletic. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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