Predictions › Spain › Valencia vs Villarreal

LaLigaSat 24 Oct, 16:30 Spain time

Valencia vs Villarreal prediction

Mestalla Stadium

ValenciaHome

1.23 : 1.60

expected goals

VillarrealAway

29%Valencia

26%Draw

45%Villarreal

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal is Villarreal to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Villarreal to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Valencia 1.2, Villarreal 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Villarreal to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.711 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Valencia 29%, the draw 26% and Villarreal 45%. The bookmakers agree and make Villarreal the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Valencia took 4 points from their last 5 games and Villarreal took 9 from 5. Villarreal come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Valencia won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Villarreal won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Valencia score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Villarreal score 1.9 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Valencia games and 14 of Villarreal games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Valencia won 0 and Villarreal won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Villarreal 2, Valencia 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Valenciarecent form-3%
Valenciarest between games-2%
Villarrealrest between games-5%

Valencia form D L W L LVillarreal form D L W W LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Valencia vs Villarreal: Villarreal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Valencia host Villarreal in the LaLiga on Sat 24 Oct, 16:30 at Mestalla Stadium. Our prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal is Villarreal to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Valencia form

Valencia have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Villarreal form

Villarreal have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Valencia won 0, Villarreal won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Villarreal 2, Valencia 1.

Our call

We expect Valencia to score about 1.2 goals and Villarreal about 1.6. That points to Villarreal to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Villarreal to win and Over 2.5 at 3.71.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Valencia	Villarreal
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	4	4
Losses	9	8
Goals scored	25	39
Goals conceded	31	30
Scored per game	1.3	1.9
Conceded per game	1.6	1.5
Home record	3W 2D 5L	6W 0D 3L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	2W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Valencia to win	27%	3.73	3.10	-16.9%
A Draw	24%	4.09	3.65	-10.8%
Villarreal to win	44%	2.25	2.10	-6.8%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.94	1.69	-12.9%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.26	2.10	-7.0%
Valencia +0.5	51%	1.95	1.67	-14.5%
Villarreal -0.5	45%	2.25	2.00	-11.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.18
Both teams to score	57%	1.75
Valencia or Draw	55%	1.83
Villarreal or Draw	71%	1.40
Valencia to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.66
Villarreal to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.46
Valencia clean sheet	20%	4.94
Villarreal clean sheet	29%	3.42

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

1-29.3%

0-18.8%

0-27.5%

2-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

Valencia Eye Former Mexico Coach Javier Aguirre for Manager Vacancy

Valencia are in advanced talks with Javier Aguirre to take over as manager after a poor start to the season.

19 Sept 2026

LaLiga

Valencia Sacks Coach Carlos Corberan and CEO Ron Gourlay

Valencia has dismissed coach Carlos Corberan and CEO Ron Gourlay with the team winless and sitting bottom of LaLiga.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?

Our prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal is Villarreal to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Valencia to score 1.2 goals and Villarreal 1.6.

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Villarreal?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Valencia last 20 games and 16 of Villarreal last 20.

How are Valencia playing?

How are Villarreal playing?

What happened when Valencia and Villarreal last met?

It ended Villarreal 2, Valencia 1. In the last 2 meetings Valencia won 0 and Villarreal won 2.

What is the best bet for Valencia vs Villarreal?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Valencia against Villarreal. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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