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Predictions › Champions League › Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain
Champions LeagueTue 3 Nov, 20:00 UTC

Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction

Estadio de la Cerámica

VillarrealHome
1.31 : 2.19
expected goals
Paris Saint-GermainAway
22%Villarreal
21%Draw
57%PSG
Eagle safe pickParis Saint-Germain or Draw
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.28.

Prediction
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-2
Expected goals
Villarreal 1.3, Paris Saint-Germain 2.2
Best bet
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.28
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Paris Saint-Germain or Draw
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Paris Saint-Germain to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 2.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Villarreal 22%, the draw 21% and Paris Saint-Germain 57%. The bookmakers agree and make Paris Saint-Germain the favourite at 1.63.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Villarreal took 7 points from their last 5 games and Paris Saint-Germain took 15 from 5. Paris Saint-Germain come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Villarreal won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Paris Saint-Germain won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Villarreal score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Paris Saint-Germain score 2.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Villarreal games and 15 of Paris Saint-Germain games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Paris Saint-Germain or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Villarrealrecent form-1%
  • PSGrecent form+6%
  • Villarrealrest between games-5%
Villarreal form D L D W LPSG form D W W W WHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain: Paris Saint-Germain are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Villarreal host Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on Tue 3 Nov, 20:00 at Estadio de la Cerámica. Our prediction for Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.28.

Villarreal form

Villarreal have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Paris Saint-Germain form

Paris Saint-Germain have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Villarreal to score about 1.3 goals and Paris Saint-Germain about 2.2. That points to Paris Saint-Germain to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.28. Our bold bet is Paris Saint-Germain to win and Over 2.5 at 2.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

VillarrealPSG
Games played2020
Wins712
Draws55
Losses83
Goals scored3948
Goals conceded3226
Scored per game1.92.4
Conceded per game1.61.3
Home record5W 1D 3L6W 2D 2L
Away record2W 4D 5L6W 3D 1L
Clean sheets5%25%
Both teams scored80%75%
Over 2.5 goals70%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Villarreal to win21%4.704.50-4.2%
A Draw21%4.784.40-8.0%
Paris Saint-Germain to win52%1.931.63-15.7%
Over 3.5 goals46%2.191.91-12.7%
Under 3.5 goals48%2.071.83-11.4%
Villarreal +0.542%2.402.15-10.5%
Paris Saint-Germain -0.552%1.911.56-18.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals87%1.15
Over 2.5 goals68%1.48
Over 3.5 goals46%2.17
Both teams to score65%1.53
Villarreal or Draw43%2.32
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw78%1.28
Villarreal to win and Over 2.516%6.36
Paris Saint-Germain to win and Over 2.543%2.30
Villarreal clean sheet11%8.90
Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet27%3.69

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-29.5%
1-19.2%
0-27.3%
1-36.9%
2-26.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Champions League

Barcelona Captain Raphinha Shrugs Off PSG Defeat Before El Clasico

Barcelona captain Raphinha says their 4-2 defeat against PSG will not affect their preparations for the upcoming clash with Real Madrid.

21 Oct 2026
Champions League

Barcelona Complain to UEFA Over Chainsaw Display by PSG Fans

Barcelona have reported PSG to UEFA after Parisian supporters displayed an aggressive pre match banner.

21 Oct 2026
Champions League

Viking Stuns Bayern as PSG Hits Top Gear

Viking FK earned a dramatic draw against Bayern Munich, while Paris Saint-Germain continued their strong turnaround with five straight wins.

15 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Our prediction for Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-2. We expect Villarreal to score 1.3 goals and Paris Saint-Germain 2.2.

Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Villarreal last 20 games and 15 of Paris Saint-Germain last 20.

How are Villarreal playing?

Villarreal have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

How are Paris Saint-Germain playing?

Paris Saint-Germain have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Villarreal against PSG. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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