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Predictions › United States › Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning
NHLSat 3 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Benchmark International Arena

Washington CapitalsAway
2.6 : 3.1
projected goals
Tampa Bay LightningHome
46%Capitals
54%Lightning
Eagle safe pickCapitals +1.5
-205

Quick answer

Our prediction for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Washington Capitals 2.6 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1. Our best bet is Capitals +1.5 at -205.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Projected total
5.7 goals
Best bet
Capitals +1.5 at -205

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Capitals +1.5
68% chancePrice -205+1.7% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Lightning 54% and Washington Capitals 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Tampa Bay Lightning the favourite at -148.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 of their last 5 and Washington Capitals won 4 of their last 5. Washington Capitals come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Washington Capitals won 7 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Lightning score 2.4 goals a game and let in 2.8. Washington Capitals score 3.5 and let in 2.6. Their recent games average 5.2 and 6.2 goals in total, and the market line is 5.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 and Washington Capitals won 1. The last one ended Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Capitals +1.5 has a 68% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
  • Capitalsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Lightning host Washington Capitals in the NHL on Sat 3 Oct, 19:00 at Benchmark International Arena. Our prediction for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Washington Capitals 2.6 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1. Our best bet is Capitals +1.5 at -205.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Washington Capitals form

Washington Capitals have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 70 goals scored and 53 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Tampa Bay Lightning won 2, Washington Capitals won 1. Last time out it finished Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5.

Our call

We expect Washington Capitals to score about 2.6 goals and Tampa Bay Lightning about 3.1. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Capitals +1.5 at -205.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LightningCapitals
Games played2020
Wins914
Losses116
Goals scored4870
Goals conceded5553
Scored per game2.43.5
Conceded per game2.82.6
Home record5W 6L7W 2L
Away record4W 5L7W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Lightning to win54%-119-148-8.9%
Capitals to win39%+154+124-11.7%
Lightning -1.531%+223+170-16.5%
Capitals +1.568%-216-205+1.7%
Over 5.5 goals50%-102-135-12.2%
Under 5.5 goals43%+131+114-7.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Lightning spreadCoversFair
Lightning -1.533%+207
Lightning -0.549%+106
Lightning +0.565%-185
Total goalsOverUnder
4.570%30%
5.554%46%
6.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Lightning +3.5 wins if Lightning win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Capitals Sign Justin Sourdif to Eight Year Contract Extension

The Washington Capitals have signed forward Justin Sourdif to an eight year contract extension worth 6.35 million dollars annually.

16 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Our prediction for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Washington Capitals 2.6 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1. Our best bet is Capitals +1.5 at -205.

What is the projected score for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

We project Washington Capitals 2.6 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1, about 5.7 goals in total.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Washington Capitals playing?

Washington Capitals have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 70 goals scored and 53 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals last met?

It ended Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5. In the last 3 meetings Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 and Washington Capitals won 1.

What is the best bet for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Capitals +1.5 at -205, with a 68% chance. That price pays about 1.7% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lightning against Capitals. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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