Premier League3 hours ago2 minute read

Fitness Struggles for Manchester United and Tottenham

Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur face questions over physical fitness following summer training choices.

The EagleEyeOdds deskWritten from the match data, checked against our model before it goes out

Troubles on the pitch for United and Spurs

Manchester United manager Michael Carrick is under pressure after three straight losses. The Red Devils fell 4-1 to Como, 3-0 to AFC Bournemouth, and 2-0 to Chelsea, before a 3-2 victory over Roma in the Champions League gave them a brief break from criticism.

Captain Bruno Fernandes was dropped for the Bournemouth match after speaking out following the Como game. He said it was a decision from the staff not to press man to man. United have recorded middling pressing numbers, forcing 56 high turnovers and holding 55% average possession.

Tottenham Hotspur also struggled before the October international break. Manager Roberto De Zerbi said his side lacked physical condition. Spurs started games with high intensity but faded, dropping matches like their 3-2 defeat to Aston Villa and 2-0 loss to Newcastle United. Three straight wins have since offered hope of recovery.

Preseason decisions and running statistics

Data from Gradient Sports shows United rank at the bottom of the Premier League for average max speed. They are 44.6 km behind the top team for total distance covered and 5.34 km behind the top sprinters. Summer signing Youri Tielemans told Rio Ferdinand that United summer training focused almost entirely on ball work with very little running.

Spurs sit 16th for distance covered. They average 63.2% possession and have forced 88 high turnovers, yet their overall running stats remain modest. Both clubs were among a small group that did little dedicated conditioning work over the summer.

Physical stats do not always equal success. Fulham have run the most distance in the league but sit 15th, while Ipswich Town lead in sprints but sit 14th. However, lower fitness levels make high intensity pressing tactics harder to sustain over 90 minutes.

What it means for the next game

Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur (Premier League, Sat, 07 Nov): Leeds United win 39%, draw 29%, Tottenham Hotspur win 32%; expected goals 1.32 to 1.17. Our safest pick: Under 3.5 goals.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa (Premier League, Sun, 08 Nov): Manchester United win 43%, draw 25%, Aston Villa win 32%; expected goals 1.66 to 1.40. Our safest pick: Over 1.5 goals.