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Predictions › Italy › AC Milan vs Bologna
Serie AWed 28 Oct, 17:30 Italy time

AC Milan vs Bologna prediction

San Siro

AC MilanHome
1.35 : 1.12
expected goals
BolognaAway
41%Milan
28%Draw
30%Bologna
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Bologna is AC Milan to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
AC Milan to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AC Milan 1.4, Bologna 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AC Milan 41%, the draw 28% and Bologna 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AC Milan took 10 points from their last 5 games and Bologna took 5 from 5. AC Milan come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AC Milan won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Bologna won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AC Milan score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Bologna score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of AC Milan games and 9 of Bologna games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AC Milan won 2 and Bologna won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Bologna 0, AC Milan 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Milanrecent form+1%
  • Milanrest between games-5%
  • Bolognarest between games-5%
Milan form D W D W LBologna form D W D L DHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AC Milan vs Bologna: AC Milan shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AC Milan host Bologna in the Serie A on Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 at San Siro. Our prediction for AC Milan vs Bologna is AC Milan to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

AC Milan form

AC Milan have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Bologna form

Bologna have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AC Milan won 2, Bologna won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Bologna 0, AC Milan 3.

Our call

We expect AC Milan to score about 1.4 goals and Bologna about 1.1. That points to AC Milan to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MilanBologna
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws44
Losses79
Goals scored2823
Goals conceded2432
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.21.6
Home record5W 1D 4L1W 4D 5L
Away record4W 3D 3L6W 0D 4L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored45%45%
Over 2.5 goals50%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%2.22
Over 3.5 goals24%4.21
Both teams to score51%1.97
AC Milan or Draw70%1.43
Bologna or Draw59%1.70
AC Milan to win and Over 2.523%4.35
Bologna to win and Over 2.516%6.15
AC Milan clean sheet33%3.07
Bologna clean sheet26%3.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
1-010.6%
0-09.2%
0-18.7%
2-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Serie A

Amorim believes Man United spell helped prepare him for AC Milan task

Ruben Amorim says his career highs and lows have made him ready to manage AC Milan as they return to Serie A action.

10 Oct 2026
Premier League

Former Man United Boss Apologizes to Fan Who Refuses to Cut His Hair

Former Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim apologized to viral fan Frank Ilett, who refuses to cut his hair until the team wins five games in a row.

25 Sept 2026
Premier League

Former Man United boss Ruben Amorim vows to adapt tactics at AC Milan

Ruben Amorim says he will adapt his tactics at AC Milan to avoid repeating the mistakes that cost him his job at Manchester United.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Bologna is AC Milan to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for AC Milan vs Bologna?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect AC Milan to score 1.4 goals and Bologna 1.1.

Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of AC Milan last 20 games and 9 of Bologna last 20.

How are AC Milan playing?

AC Milan have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

How are Bologna playing?

Bologna have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when AC Milan and Bologna last met?

It ended Bologna 0, AC Milan 3. In the last 2 meetings AC Milan won 2 and Bologna won 0.

What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Bologna?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Milan against Bologna. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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