Predictions › Italy › AC Milan vs Internazionale
Serie ASat 31 Oct, 19:45 Italy time

AC Milan vs Internazionale prediction

San Siro

AC MilanHome
1.28 : 1.59
expected goals
InternazionaleAway
30%Milan
26%Draw
44%Inter Milan
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Internazionale is Internazionale to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Internazionale to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AC Milan 1.3, Internazionale 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Internazionale to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AC Milan 30%, the draw 26% and Internazionale 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AC Milan took 10 points from their last 5 games and Internazionale took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AC Milan won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Internazionale won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AC Milan score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Internazionale score 2.5 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of AC Milan games and 14 of Internazionale games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AC Milan won 2 and Internazionale won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended AC Milan 1, Internazionale 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Milanrecent form+1%
  • Inter Milanrecent form+1%
  • Inter Milanrest between games-5%
Milan form D W D W LInter Milan form D W L W DHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AC Milan vs Internazionale: Internazionale shade it

The big picture

AC Milan host Internazionale in the Serie A on Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 at San Siro. Our prediction for AC Milan vs Internazionale is Internazionale to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

AC Milan form

AC Milan have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Internazionale form

Internazionale have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 51 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AC Milan won 2, Internazionale won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AC Milan 1, Internazionale 0.

Our call

We expect AC Milan to score about 1.3 goals and Internazionale about 1.6. That points to Internazionale to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Internazionale to win and Over 2.5 at 3.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MilanInter Milan
Games played2020
Wins912
Draws46
Losses72
Goals scored2851
Goals conceded2428
Scored per game1.42.5
Conceded per game1.21.4
Home record5W 1D 4L8W 2D 1L
Away record4W 3D 3L4W 4D 1L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored45%70%
Over 2.5 goals50%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.09
Both teams to score58%1.72
AC Milan or Draw56%1.79
Internazionale or Draw70%1.43
AC Milan to win and Over 2.519%5.33
Internazionale to win and Over 2.529%3.51
AC Milan clean sheet20%4.91
Internazionale clean sheet28%3.58

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
1-29.2%
0-18.4%
2-17.4%
0-27.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win AC Milan vs Internazionale?

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Internazionale is Internazionale to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for AC Milan vs Internazionale?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect AC Milan to score 1.3 goals and Internazionale 1.6.

Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Internazionale?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of AC Milan last 20 games and 14 of Internazionale last 20.

How are AC Milan playing?

AC Milan have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

How are Internazionale playing?

Internazionale have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 51 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when AC Milan and Internazionale last met?

It ended AC Milan 1, Internazionale 0. In the last 2 meetings AC Milan won 2 and Internazionale won 0.

What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Internazionale?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Milan against Inter Milan. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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