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Predictions › Europa League › AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Europa LeagueThu 22 Oct, 19:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction

Vitality Stadium

AFC BournemouthHome
1.13 : 1.18
expected goals
AC MilanAway
34%Bournemouth
30%Draw
36%Milan
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
AC Milan to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AFC Bournemouth 1.1, AC Milan 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.131 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AFC Bournemouth 34%, the draw 30% and AC Milan 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AFC Bournemouth took 7 points from their last 5 games and AC Milan took 6 from 5. AFC Bournemouth come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AFC Bournemouth won 2 of their last 10 games at home. AC Milan won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AFC Bournemouth score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. AC Milan score 1.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AFC Bournemouth games and 8 of AC Milan games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bournemouthrecent form+1%
  • Bournemouthrest between games-2%
  • Milanrest between games-5%
Bournemouth form D L W D WMilan form D W L D DHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan: AC Milan shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AFC Bournemouth host AC Milan in the Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 19:00 at Vitality Stadium. Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

AFC Bournemouth form

AFC Bournemouth have 6 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, W, newest first.

AC Milan form

AC Milan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect AFC Bournemouth to score about 1.1 goals and AC Milan about 1.2. That points to AC Milan to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.13.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BournemouthMilan
Games played2020
Wins68
Draws114
Losses38
Goals scored2823
Goals conceded2323
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.11.1
Home record2W 7D 1L4W 1D 5L
Away record4W 4D 2L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored65%40%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.46
Over 3.5 goals20%4.93
Both teams to score48%2.10
AFC Bournemouth or Draw64%1.57
AC Milan or Draw66%1.51
AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.517%5.87
AC Milan to win and Over 2.519%5.40
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet31%3.26
AC Milan clean sheet32%3.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
0-110.9%
0-010.7%
1-010.4%
1-27.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Serie A

Amorim believes Man United spell helped prepare him for AC Milan task

Ruben Amorim says his career highs and lows have made him ready to manage AC Milan as they return to Serie A action.

10 Oct 2026
Premier League

Former Man United Boss Apologizes to Fan Who Refuses to Cut His Hair

Former Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim apologized to viral fan Frank Ilett, who refuses to cut his hair until the team wins five games in a row.

25 Sept 2026
Premier League

Former Man United boss Ruben Amorim vows to adapt tactics at AC Milan

Ruben Amorim says he will adapt his tactics at AC Milan to avoid repeating the mistakes that cost him his job at Manchester United.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect AFC Bournemouth to score 1.1 goals and AC Milan 1.2.

Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of AFC Bournemouth last 20 games and 8 of AC Milan last 20.

How are AFC Bournemouth playing?

AFC Bournemouth have 6 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are AC Milan playing?

AC Milan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bournemouth against Milan. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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