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College FootballSat 3 Oct, 12:00 United States time

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction

Davis Wade Stadium

Alabama Crimson TideAway

32.5 : 27.1

projected points

Mississippi State BulldogsHome

67%Alabama

33%Mississippi St

Eagle safe pickAlabama to win

-218

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs is Alabama Crimson Tide to win, with a 67% chance. We project Alabama Crimson Tide 32.5 and Mississippi State Bulldogs 27.1. Our best bet is Alabama to win at -218.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide to win
Chance: 67%
Projected score: Alabama Crimson Tide 32, Mississippi State Bulldogs 27
Projected total: 59.5 points
Best bet: Alabama to win at -218

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Alabama to win

65% chancePrice -2181 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Mississippi State Bulldogs 33% and Alabama Crimson Tide 67%. The bookmakers agree and make Alabama Crimson Tide the favourite at -218.
2
Recent form
Mississippi State Bulldogs won 4 of their last 5 and Alabama Crimson Tide won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Mississippi State Bulldogs won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Alabama Crimson Tide won 6 of their last 7 on the road.
4
Scoring
Mississippi State Bulldogs score 33.9 points a game and let in 29.3. Alabama Crimson Tide score 32.1 and let in 19.9. Their recent games average 63.3 and 51.9 points in total, and the market line is 59.5.
5
The safest bet
Alabama to win has a 65% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Mississippi Strest between games-5%
Alabamarest between games-5%

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: Alabama Crimson Tide are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mississippi State Bulldogs host Alabama Crimson Tide in the College Football on Sat 3 Oct, 12:00 at Davis Wade Stadium. Our prediction for Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs is Alabama Crimson Tide to win, with a 67% chance. We project Alabama Crimson Tide 32.5 and Mississippi State Bulldogs 27.1. Our best bet is Alabama to win at -218.

Mississippi State Bulldogs form

Mississippi State Bulldogs have 7 wins and 8 losses in their last 15 games, with 509 points scored and 440 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Alabama Crimson Tide form

Alabama Crimson Tide have 14 wins and 3 losses in their last 17 games, with 545 points scored and 338 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Alabama Crimson Tide to score about 32.5 points and Mississippi State Bulldogs about 27.1. That points to Alabama Crimson Tide to win. Our safest bet is Alabama to win at -218.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 17 games in all competitions.

	Mississippi St	Alabama
Games played	15	17
Wins	7	14
Losses	8	3
Points scored	509	545
Points conceded	440	338
Scored per game	33.9	32.1
Conceded per game	29.3	19.9
Home record	4W 5L	8W 2L
Away record	3W 3L	6W 1L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Mississippi St to win	33%	+204	+180	-8.0%
Alabama to win	65%	-184	-218	-5.5%
Mississippi St +6	49%	+106	-108	-6.6%
Alabama -6	45%	+121	-112	-14.3%
Over 59.5 points	47%	+113	-110	-10.4%
Under 59.5 points	47%	+114	-110	-10.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Mississippi St spread	Covers	Fair
Mississippi St -1.5	33%	+199
Mississippi St +2.5	43%	+133
Mississippi St +5.5	50%	-101
Mississippi St +8.5	58%	-137
Mississippi St +12.5	67%	-205

Total points	Over	Under
52.5	67%	33%
56.5	58%	42%
59.5	50%	50%
62.5	43%	57%
66.5	33%	67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Mississippi St +3.5 wins if Mississippi St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

College Football

Alabama Offensive Coordinator Apologizes After Criticizing Fans

Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb issued an apology after calling out fans who booed during the team's slow start against Florida State.

22 Sept 2026

College Football

Kamario Taylor Leads Mississippi State Comeback At South Carolina

Kamario Taylor threw four touchdowns as Mississippi State overcame a 16-0 deficit to beat South Carolina 41-34 for their second straight road win.

20 Sept 2026

College Football

Alabama Expects Guard Michael Carroll to Return Against Florida State

Alabama right guard Michael Carroll is expected to return for Saturday's game against Florida State after practicing this week.

17 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?

What is the projected score for Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?

We project Alabama Crimson Tide 32.5 and Mississippi State Bulldogs 27.1, about 59.5 points in total.

How are Mississippi State Bulldogs playing?

How are Alabama Crimson Tide playing?

What is the best bet for Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?

Alabama to win at -218, with a 65% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mississippi St against Alabama. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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