Predictions › United Kingdom › Arsenal vs Leeds United

Premier LeagueSat 10 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Arsenal vs Leeds United prediction

Emirates Stadium

ArsenalHome

2.01 : 0.73

expected goals

Leeds UnitedAway

67%Arsenal

21%Draw

12%Leeds

Eagle safe pickArsenal or Draw

1/6

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arsenal vs Leeds United is Arsenal to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/6.

Prediction: Arsenal to win
Chance: 67%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.0, Leeds United 0.7
Best bet: Arsenal or Draw at 1/6
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Arsenal or Draw

86% chanceFair price 1/62 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Arsenal to win and Over 2.5

39% chanceFair price 8/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Arsenal 67%, the draw 21% and Leeds United 12%. The bookmakers agree and make Arsenal the favourite at 4/11.
2
Recent form
Arsenal took 12 points from their last 5 games and Leeds United took 6 from 5. Arsenal come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Arsenal won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Leeds United won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Arsenal score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.8. Leeds United score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Arsenal games and 9 of Leeds United games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Arsenal won 1 and Leeds United won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Leeds United 0, Arsenal 4.
6
The safest bet
Arsenal or Draw has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Arsenalrecent form+4%

Arsenal form L W W W WLeeds form D W L D DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Arsenal vs Leeds United: Arsenal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arsenal host Leeds United in the Premier League on Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 at Emirates Stadium. Our prediction for Arsenal vs Leeds United is Arsenal to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/6.

Arsenal form

Arsenal have 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Leeds United form

Leeds United have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Arsenal won 1, Leeds United won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Leeds United 0, Arsenal 4.

Our call

We expect Arsenal to score about 2.0 goals and Leeds United about 0.7. That points to Arsenal to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/6. Our bold bet is Arsenal to win and Over 2.5 at 8/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Arsenal	Leeds
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	8
Draws	3	8
Losses	4	4
Goals scored	28	29
Goals conceded	15	21
Scored per game	1.4	1.4
Conceded per game	0.8	1.1
Home record	6W 1D 1L	5W 3D 1L
Away record	7W 2D 3L	3W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	55%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Arsenal to win	67%	1/2	4/11	-8.0%
A Draw	21%	4/1	4/1	-0.4%
Leeds United to win	11%	17/2	13/2	-21.3%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	Evens	8/11	-13.4%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	5/4	Evens	-12.0%
Arsenal -1.5	41%	6/4	21/20	-16.6%
Leeds United +1.5	53%	10/11	8/13	-13.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	3/10
Over 2.5 goals	52%	10/11
Over 3.5 goals	30%	12/5
Both teams to score	45%	6/5
Arsenal or Draw	88%	2/15
Leeds United or Draw	33%	2/1
Arsenal to win and Over 2.5	41%	7/5
Leeds United to win and Over 2.5	6%	16/1
Arsenal clean sheet	48%	21/20
Leeds United clean sheet	13%	13/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-013.0%

1-012.4%

1-110.0%

2-19.5%

3-08.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Parma Dismiss Manager Carlos Cuesta After Slow Start to Serie A Season

Parma have parted ways with head coach Carlos Cuesta after winning just one of their opening five league matches this season.

27 Sept 2026

Premier League

Arsenal and Liverpool Lead Chase for Brentford Star Kevin Schade

Arsenal and Liverpool are tracking Brentford's Kevin Schade, while top clubs prepare bids for Alessandro Bastoni and Marcos Llorente.

26 Sept 2026

Premier League

Mourinho Blames Referees After Real Madrid Fall Behind Barcelona

Jose Mourinho targeted the officials after Real Madrid lost the derby, while Arsenal suffered a shock defeat at Brighton.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds United?

Our prediction for Arsenal vs Leeds United is Arsenal to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/6.

What is the score prediction for Arsenal vs Leeds United?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Arsenal to score 2.0 goals and Leeds United 0.7.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Arsenal last 20 games and 9 of Leeds United last 20.

How are Arsenal playing?

How are Leeds United playing?

What happened when Arsenal and Leeds United last met?

It ended Leeds United 0, Arsenal 4. In the last 1 meeting Arsenal won 1 and Leeds United won 0.

What is the best bet for Arsenal vs Leeds United?

Arsenal or Draw at 1/6, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Arsenal against Leeds. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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