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Predictions › Champions League › Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United
Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United prediction

Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atlético MadridHome
1.76 : 1.34
expected goals
Manchester UnitedAway
47%Atlético
25%Draw
29%Man United
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Atlético Madrid to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético Madrid 1.8, Manchester United 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.171 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Madrid 47%, the draw 25% and Manchester United 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Madrid the favourite at 2.20.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Madrid took 9 points from their last 5 games and Manchester United took 5 from 5. Atlético Madrid come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Madrid won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Manchester United won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Madrid score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Manchester United score 1.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Atlético Madrid games and 13 of Manchester United games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atléticorecent form+1%
  • Man Unitedrecent form-1%
  • Man Unitedteam news-1%
Atlético form W W W L LMan United form D L L W DHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United: Atlético Madrid are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Madrid host Manchester United in the Champions League on Tue 13 Oct, 19:00 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Atlético Madrid form

Atlético Madrid have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Manchester United form

Manchester United have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atlético Madrid to score about 1.8 goals and Manchester United about 1.3. That points to Atlético Madrid to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.5 at 3.17.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtléticoMan United
Games played2020
Wins1010
Draws25
Losses85
Goals scored3337
Goals conceded2725
Scored per game1.61.9
Conceded per game1.41.3
Home record5W 2D 2L7W 0D 3L
Away record5W 0D 6L3W 5D 2L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored55%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Atlético Madrid to win44%2.262.20-2.7%
A Draw24%4.143.75-9.5%
Manchester United to win28%3.542.85-19.5%
Over 3.5 goals39%2.552.15-15.5%
Under 3.5 goals56%1.801.63-9.8%
Atlético Madrid -0.542%2.382.10-11.7%
Manchester United +0.553%1.901.61-15.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.67
Over 3.5 goals37%2.67
Both teams to score62%1.62
Atlético Madrid or Draw71%1.40
Manchester United or Draw53%1.87
Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.532%3.09
Manchester United to win and Over 2.519%5.18
Atlético Madrid clean sheet26%3.83
Manchester United clean sheet17%5.79

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
2-19.3%
1-07.3%
1-27.1%
2-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Sir Alex Ferguson recalls terror of Old Trafford return after brain surgery

Sir Alex Ferguson has opened up about his frightening recovery and return to Old Trafford after suffering a brain haemorrhage in 2018.

2 Oct 2026
Premier League

Chelsea and Man United Track Benfica Star Tomás Araújo

Chelsea and Manchester United are tracking Benfica's Tomás Araújo, while free agent Jadon Sancho is prepared to wait until January to find a new club.

2 Oct 2026
Premier League

Fulham Boss Álvaro Arbeloa Charged By FA After Manchester United Draw

Fulham manager Álvaro Arbeloa faces an FA misconduct charge for claiming officials would not let Manchester United lose.

30 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United?

Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Atlético Madrid to score 1.8 goals and Manchester United 1.3.

Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Atlético Madrid last 20 games and 13 of Manchester United last 20.

How are Atlético Madrid playing?

Atlético Madrid have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Manchester United playing?

Manchester United have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlético against Man United. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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