Predictions › Europa League › Benfica vs Celtic

Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Benfica vs Celtic prediction

Estádio da Luz

BenficaHome

2.40 : 1.04

expected goals

CelticAway

67%Benfica

19%Draw

14%Celtic

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Benfica vs Celtic is Benfica to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Benfica to win
Chance: 67%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Benfica 2.4, Celtic 1.0
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Benfica to win and both score

34% chanceFair price 2.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Benfica 67%, the draw 19% and Celtic 14%. The bookmakers agree and make Benfica the favourite at 1.25.
2
Recent form
Benfica took 12 points from their last 5 games and Celtic took 9 from 5. Benfica come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Benfica won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Celtic won 8 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Benfica score 2.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Celtic score 2.0 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 17 of Benfica games and 14 of Celtic games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Benficarecent form+4%
Celticrecent form-1%

Benfica form L W W W WCeltic form L L L W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Benfica vs Celtic: Benfica are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Benfica host Celtic in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at Estádio da Luz. Our prediction for Benfica vs Celtic is Benfica to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Benfica form

Benfica have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Celtic form

Celtic have 16 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Benfica to score about 2.4 goals and Celtic about 1.0. That points to Benfica to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Benfica to win and both score at 2.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Benfica	Celtic
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	16
Draws	5	1
Losses	2	3
Goals scored	50	40
Goals conceded	21	20
Scored per game	2.5	2.0
Conceded per game	1.1	1.0
Home record	5W 3D 0L	8W 0D 2L
Away record	8W 2D 2L	8W 1D 1L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	70%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	85%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Benfica to win	68%	1.46	1.25	-14.5%
A Draw	18%	5.42	6.00	+10.7%
Celtic to win	14%	7.15	9.50	+32.9%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.46	2.20	-10.6%
Under 3.5 goals	54%	1.86	1.63	-12.5%
Benfica -1.5	49%	2.06	1.67	-19.1%
Celtic +1.5	46%	2.18	1.95	-10.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	67%	1.49
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.21
Both teams to score	59%	1.68
Benfica or Draw	86%	1.17
Celtic or Draw	33%	3.03
Benfica to win and Over 2.5	51%	1.98
Celtic to win and Over 2.5	10%	10.30
Benfica clean sheet	35%	2.84
Celtic clean sheet	9%	11.07

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.6%

2-09.2%

1-18.5%

3-17.7%

3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Scottish Premiership

Celtic Blast Fan Protest After Golf Course Incident

Celtic has strongly condemned a protest where tennis balls were thrown at major shareholder Dermot Desmond during a golf tournament.

4 Oct 2026

Premier League

Chelsea and Man United Track Benfica Star Tomás Araújo

Chelsea and Manchester United are tracking Benfica's Tomás Araújo, while free agent Jadon Sancho is prepared to wait until January to find a new club.

2 Oct 2026

Scottish Premiership

Rangers Close The Gap At The Top With Derby Win Over Celtic

Ryan Naderi scored the only goal as Rangers beat Celtic 1-0 at Celtic Park to move within two points of the top of the table.

20 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?

Our prediction for Benfica vs Celtic is Benfica to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Benfica vs Celtic?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Benfica to score 2.4 goals and Celtic 1.0.

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Celtic?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Benfica last 20 games and 13 of Celtic last 20.

How are Benfica playing?

How are Celtic playing?

What is the best bet for Benfica vs Celtic?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Benfica against Celtic. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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