Predictions › United Kingdom › Everton vs Chelsea

Premier LeagueSat 17 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Everton vs Chelsea prediction

Hill Dickinson Stadium

EvertonHome

1.50 : 1.52

expected goals

ChelseaAway

37%Everton

26%Draw

38%Chelsea

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Everton vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction: Chelsea to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Everton 1.5, Chelsea 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 2/72 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

12% chanceFair price 15/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Everton 37%, the draw 26% and Chelsea 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Chelsea the favourite at 5/4.
2
Recent form
Everton took 9 points from their last 5 games and Chelsea took 7 from 5. Everton come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Everton won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Chelsea won 1 of their last 7 on the road.
4
Goals
Everton score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.3. Chelsea score 1.6 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Everton games and 14 of Chelsea games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Everton won 1 and Chelsea won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Everton 3, Chelsea 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Evertonrecent form+3%

Everton form W W D D DChelsea form L D W L WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Everton vs Chelsea: Chelsea shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League on Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Our prediction for Everton vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Everton form

Everton have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Chelsea form

Chelsea have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Everton won 1, Chelsea won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Everton 3, Chelsea 0.

Our call

We expect Everton to score about 1.5 goals and Chelsea about 1.5. That points to Chelsea to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 15/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Everton	Chelsea
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	7
Draws	6	2
Losses	7	11
Goals scored	30	31
Goals conceded	25	37
Scored per game	1.5	1.6
Conceded per game	1.3	1.9
Home record	5W 2D 4L	6W 1D 6L
Away record	2W 4D 3L	1W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	35%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Everton to win	35%	15/8	7/4	-3.5%
A Draw	25%	3/1	11/4	-5.3%
Chelsea to win	36%	9/5	5/4	-18.0%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	5/6	8/13	-13.3%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	6/4	6/5	-13.6%
Everton +0.5	55%	4/5	4/7	-13.3%
Chelsea -0.5	38%	13/8	11/10	-18.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	2/9
Over 2.5 goals	58%	8/11
Over 3.5 goals	36%	9/5
Both teams to score	61%	8/13
Everton or Draw	62%	8/13
Chelsea or Draw	63%	4/7
Everton to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Chelsea to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Everton clean sheet	22%	7/2
Chelsea clean sheet	22%	7/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

1-28.4%

2-18.4%

0-16.8%

1-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

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22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?

Our prediction for Everton vs Chelsea is Chelsea to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Everton vs Chelsea?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Everton to score 1.5 goals and Chelsea 1.5.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Everton last 20 games and 9 of Chelsea last 20.

How are Everton playing?

How are Chelsea playing?

What happened when Everton and Chelsea last met?

It ended Everton 3, Chelsea 0. In the last 2 meetings Everton won 1 and Chelsea won 1.

What is the best bet for Everton vs Chelsea?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Everton against Chelsea. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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