Predictions › Italy › Genoa vs AC Milan

Serie ASun 8 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Genoa vs AC Milan prediction

Stadio Luigi Ferraris

GenoaHome

0.90 : 1.40

expected goals

AC MilanAway

23%Genoa

29%Draw

48%Milan

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: AC Milan to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Genoa 0.9, AC Milan 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Genoa 23%, the draw 29% and AC Milan 48%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Genoa took 9 points from their last 5 games and AC Milan took 9 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Genoa won 5 of their last 11 games at home. AC Milan won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Genoa score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. AC Milan score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Genoa games and 11 of AC Milan games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Genoa won 0 and AC Milan won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Genoa 1, AC Milan 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Milanrecent form+3%
Genoarest between games-5%
Milanrest between games-5%

Genoa form D W L W LMilan form D W L W WHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Genoa vs AC Milan: AC Milan are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Genoa host AC Milan in the Serie A on Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Our prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Genoa form

Genoa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

AC Milan form

AC Milan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Genoa won 0, AC Milan won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Genoa 1, AC Milan 2.

Our call

We expect Genoa to score about 0.9 goals and AC Milan about 1.4. That points to AC Milan to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Genoa	Milan
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	3	4
Losses	10	8
Goals scored	17	28
Goals conceded	25	28
Scored per game	0.8	1.4
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	5W 1D 5L	3W 1D 5L
Away record	2W 2D 5L	5W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.48
Over 2.5 goals	40%	2.48
Over 3.5 goals	20%	5.01
Both teams to score	45%	2.20
Genoa or Draw	52%	1.91
AC Milan or Draw	77%	1.31
Genoa to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.01
AC Milan to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.07
Genoa clean sheet	25%	4.03
AC Milan clean sheet	41%	2.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%

0-113.3%

0-010.8%

0-29.8%

1-28.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Amorim believes Man United spell helped prepare him for AC Milan task

Ruben Amorim says his career highs and lows have made him ready to manage AC Milan as they return to Serie A action.

10 Oct 2026

Premier League

Former Man United Boss Apologizes to Fan Who Refuses to Cut His Hair

Former Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim apologized to viral fan Frank Ilett, who refuses to cut his hair until the team wins five games in a row.

25 Sept 2026

Premier League

Former Man United boss Ruben Amorim vows to adapt tactics at AC Milan

Ruben Amorim says he will adapt his tactics at AC Milan to avoid repeating the mistakes that cost him his job at Manchester United.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?

Our prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Genoa to score 0.9 goals and AC Milan 1.4.

Will both teams score in Genoa vs AC Milan?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Genoa last 20 games and 9 of AC Milan last 20.

How are Genoa playing?

How are AC Milan playing?

What happened when Genoa and AC Milan last met?

It ended Genoa 1, AC Milan 2. In the last 2 meetings Genoa won 0 and AC Milan won 1.

What is the best bet for Genoa vs AC Milan?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Genoa against Milan. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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