Predictions › United States › Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

NFLSun 8 Nov, 16:25 United States time

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots prediction

Gillette Stadium

Green Bay PackersAway

20.9 : 25.5

projected points

New England PatriotsHome

43%Packers

57%Patriots

Eagle safe pickPatriots +4

-306

Quick answer

Our prediction for Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots is New England Patriots to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Green Bay Packers 20.9 and New England Patriots 25.5. Our best bet is Patriots +4 at -306.

Prediction: New England Patriots to win
Chance: 57%
Projected score: Green Bay Packers 21, New England Patriots 26
Projected total: 46.4 points
Best bet: Patriots +4 at -306

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Patriots +4

75% chanceFair price -3062 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives New England Patriots 57% and Green Bay Packers 43%. The bookmakers agree and make New England Patriots the favourite at -175.
2
Recent form
New England Patriots won 3 of their last 5 and Green Bay Packers won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
New England Patriots won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Green Bay Packers won 5 of their last 12 on the road.
4
Scoring
New England Patriots score 23.8 points a game and let in 19.1. Green Bay Packers score 22.0 and let in 22.4. Their recent games average 42.9 and 44.5 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.
5
The safest bet
Patriots +4 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Patriotsteam news-1%

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots: New England Patriots shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New England Patriots host Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sun 8 Nov, 16:25 at Gillette Stadium. Our prediction for Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots is New England Patriots to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Green Bay Packers 20.9 and New England Patriots 25.5. Our best bet is Patriots +4 at -306.

New England Patriots form

New England Patriots have 13 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 475 points scored and 383 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Green Bay Packers form

Green Bay Packers have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 440 points scored and 449 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 7 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Green Bay Packers to score about 20.9 points and New England Patriots about 25.5. That points to New England Patriots to win. Our safest bet is Patriots +4 at -306.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Patriots	Packers
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	10
Losses	6	10
Points scored	475	440
Points conceded	383	449
Scored per game	23.8	22.0
Conceded per game	19.1	22.4
Home record	8W 2L	5W 3L
Away record	5W 4L	5W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Patriots to win	57%	-134	-175	-10.1%
Packers to win	38%	+165	+145	-7.7%
Patriots -3	50%	-101	-115	-5.9%
Packers +3	44%	+130	-105	-15.1%
Over 47.5 points	45%	+125	-110	-15.0%
Under 47.5 points	49%	+103	-110	-5.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Patriots spread	Covers	Fair
Patriots -11.5	30%	+229
Patriots -7.5	41%	+141
Patriots -4.5	50%	-101
Patriots -1.5	59%	-144
Patriots +2.5	70%	-234

Total points	Over	Under
39.5	70%	30%
43.5	59%	41%
46.5	50%	50%
49.5	41%	59%
53.5	29%	71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Patriots +3.5 wins if Patriots win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

NFL

Green Bay Packers Furious Over Officiating After Loss To Detroit Lions

Packers players criticized referee calls following a defeat to the Detroit Lions, though team errors also proved costly.

26 Oct 2026

NFL

Patriots Search for Takeaways After Loss to Chicago Bears

New England struggles with turnovers after a 30-24 loss to Chicago, looking ahead to Miami.

24 Oct 2026

NFL

Bears Edge Patriots 30-24 as Williams and Santos Deliver Late

Chicago held off New England behind big passing numbers from Caleb Williams and a late 58 yard field goal by Cairo Santos.

23 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots?

What is the projected score for Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots?

We project Green Bay Packers 20.9 and New England Patriots 25.5, about 46.4 points in total.

How are New England Patriots playing?

How are Green Bay Packers playing?

What is the best bet for Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots?

Patriots +4 at -306, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Patriots against Packers. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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