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Predictions › United States › Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders
NFLSun 4 Oct, 09:30 United States time

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders prediction

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsAway
25.5 : 23.2
projected points
Washington CommandersHome
62%Colts
38%Commanders
Eagle safe pickOver 40.5 points
-293

Quick answer

Our prediction for Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders is Indianapolis Colts to win, with a 62% chance. We project Indianapolis Colts 25.5 and Washington Commanders 23.2. Our best bet is Over 40.5 points at -293.

Prediction
Indianapolis Colts to win
Chance
62%
Projected score
Indianapolis Colts 25, Washington Commanders 23
Projected total
48.7 points
Best bet
Over 40.5 points at -293

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 40.5 points
75% chanceFair price -2931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Washington Commanders 38% and Indianapolis Colts 62%. The bookmakers agree and make Indianapolis Colts the favourite at -162.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Washington Commanders won 1 of their last 5 and Indianapolis Colts won 1 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Washington Commanders won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Indianapolis Colts won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Washington Commanders score 19.4 points a game and let in 27.6. Indianapolis Colts score 23.5 and let in 25.9. Their recent games average 46.9 and 49.5 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 40.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Commandersrest between games-5%
  • Coltsrest between games-5%
  • Commandersteam news-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders: Indianapolis Colts are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Washington Commanders host Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sun 4 Oct, 09:30 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Our prediction for Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders is Indianapolis Colts to win, with a 62% chance. We project Indianapolis Colts 25.5 and Washington Commanders 23.2. Our best bet is Over 40.5 points at -293.

Washington Commanders form

Washington Commanders have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 387 points scored and 551 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Indianapolis Colts form

Indianapolis Colts have 6 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 470 points scored and 519 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Indianapolis Colts to score about 25.5 points and Washington Commanders about 23.2. That points to Indianapolis Colts to win. Our safest bet is Over 40.5 points at -293.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CommandersColts
Games played2020
Wins56
Losses1513
Points scored387470
Points conceded551519
Scored per game19.423.5
Conceded per game27.625.9
Home record2W 6L5W 6L
Away record3W 9L1W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Commanders to win38%+161+136-9.7%
Colts to win55%-125-162-10.3%
Commanders +349%+103-108-5.3%
Colts -345%+124-112-15.6%
Over 47.5 points50%-102+100+0.9%
Under 47.5 points43%+131-120-20.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Commanders spreadCoversFair
Commanders -4.531%+224
Commanders -0.542%+139
Commanders +2.551%-103
Commanders +5.560%-147
Commanders +9.570%-238
Total pointsOverUnder
41.571%29%
45.560%40%
48.551%49%
51.541%59%
55.530%70%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Commanders +3.5 wins if Commanders win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Jayden Daniels Elbow Injury Leaves Commanders in Familiar Trouble

Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels suffered another dislocated elbow, leaving the 0-2 Commanders to face the Seahawks with backup Marcus Mariota.

21 Sept 2026
NFL

Commanders Wait on Jayden Daniels Injury Plan After Elbow Dislocation

The Washington Commanders are waiting on specialist opinions before setting a timeline for quarterback Jayden Daniels to return from a dislocated elbow.

21 Sept 2026
NFL

Steichen Explains Late Game Decisions After Tough Overtime Loss to Kansas City

Indianapolis Colts coach Shane Steichen stood by his late-game playcalling and decision to defer the coin toss in Sunday's 33-30 overtime defeat.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders?

Our prediction for Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders is Indianapolis Colts to win, with a 62% chance. We project Indianapolis Colts 25.5 and Washington Commanders 23.2. Our best bet is Over 40.5 points at -293.

What is the projected score for Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders?

We project Indianapolis Colts 25.5 and Washington Commanders 23.2, about 48.7 points in total.

How are Washington Commanders playing?

Washington Commanders have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 387 points scored and 551 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Indianapolis Colts playing?

Indianapolis Colts have 6 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 470 points scored and 519 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders?

Over 40.5 points at -293, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Commanders against Colts. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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