EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › United States › Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors
NBAThu 5 Nov, 22:00 United States time

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors prediction

Chase Center

Miami HeatAway
118.4 : 119.8
projected points
Golden State WarriorsHome
50%Heat
50%Warriors
Eagle safe pickHeat +9.5
-304

Quick answer

Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors is Golden State Warriors to win, with a 50% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 118.4 and Golden State Warriors 119.8. Our best bet is Heat +9.5 at -304.

Prediction
Golden State Warriors to win
Chance
50%
Projected score
Miami Heat 118, Golden State Warriors 120
Projected total
238.2 points
Best bet
Heat +9.5 at -304

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heat +9.5
75% chanceFair price -3042 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heat to win
44% chanceFair price +1271 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Golden State Warriors 50% and Miami Heat 50%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Golden State Warriors won 2 of their last 5 and Miami Heat won 0 of their last 5. Golden State Warriors come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Golden State Warriors won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Miami Heat won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Golden State Warriors score 112.4 points a game and let in 114.7. Miami Heat score 123.0 and let in 124.4. Their recent games average 227.1 and 247.4 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Golden State Warriors won 1 and Miami Heat won 1. The last one ended Golden State Warriors 135, Miami Heat 112.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Heat +9.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Warriorsrest between games-5%
  • Heatrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors: Golden State Warriors shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Golden State Warriors host Miami Heat in the NBA on Thu 5 Nov, 22:00 at Chase Center. Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors is Golden State Warriors to win, with a 50% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 118.4 and Golden State Warriors 119.8. Our best bet is Heat +9.5 at -304.

Golden State Warriors form

Golden State Warriors have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 2248 points scored and 2294 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2460 points scored and 2488 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Golden State Warriors won 1, Miami Heat won 1. Last time out it finished Golden State Warriors 135, Miami Heat 112.

Our call

We expect Miami Heat to score about 118.4 points and Golden State Warriors about 119.8. That points to Golden State Warriors to win. Our safest bet is Heat +9.5 at -304. Our bold bet is Heat to win at +127.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WarriorsHeat
Games played2020
Wins78
Losses1312
Points scored22482460
Points conceded22942488
Scored per game112.4123.0
Conceded per game114.7124.4
Home record4W 5L5W 5L
Away record3W 8L3W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Warriors spreadCoversFair
Warriors -7.531%+220
Warriors -4.540%+149
Warriors -1.550%+101
Warriors +1.559%-145
Warriors +4.568%-214
Total pointsOverUnder
232.562%38%
235.556%44%
238.549%51%
241.543%57%
244.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Warriors +3.5 wins if Warriors win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Giannis Fouls Out as Heat Drop Third Straight in Loss to Hornets

Miami fell to 0-3 after a 115-110 loss to Charlotte, where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored just 14 points before fouling out.

25 Oct 2026
NBA

Grizzlies Stun Warriors With Late 17-0 Run in San Francisco

The Golden State Warriors collapsed in the final four minutes, allowing a 17-0 run as the Memphis Grizzlies snatched a 111-108 road victory.

24 Oct 2026
NBA

Giannis Scores 71 Points in First Two Games as Heat Start 0-2

Giannis Antetokounmpo has 71 points through two games, but the Miami Heat sit at 0-2 after giving up 259 points.

24 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors?

Our prediction for Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors is Golden State Warriors to win, with a 50% chance, but it is a close call. We project Miami Heat 118.4 and Golden State Warriors 119.8. Our best bet is Heat +9.5 at -304.

What is the projected score for Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors?

We project Miami Heat 118.4 and Golden State Warriors 119.8, about 238.2 points in total.

How are Golden State Warriors playing?

Golden State Warriors have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 2248 points scored and 2294 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2460 points scored and 2488 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat last met?

It ended Golden State Warriors 135, Miami Heat 112. In the last 2 meetings Golden State Warriors won 1 and Miami Heat won 1.

What is the best bet for Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors?

Heat +9.5 at -304, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Warriors against Heat. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.