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Predictions › United States › New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions
NFLSun 15 Nov, 09:30 United States time

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions prediction

FC Bayern Munich Stadium

New England PatriotsAway
24.2 : 24.2
projected points
Detroit LionsHome
55%Patriots
45%Lions
Eagle safe pickLions +8.5
-297

Quick answer

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions is New England Patriots to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project New England Patriots 24.2 and Detroit Lions 24.2. Our best bet is Lions +8.5 at -297.

Prediction
New England Patriots to win
Chance
55%
Projected score
New England Patriots 24, Detroit Lions 24
Projected total
48.4 points
Best bet
Lions +8.5 at -297

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Lions +8.5
75% chanceFair price -2971 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Detroit Lions 45% and New England Patriots 55%. The bookmakers agree and make New England Patriots the favourite at -122.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Detroit Lions won 4 of their last 5 and New England Patriots won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Detroit Lions won 7 of their last 10 games at home. New England Patriots won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Detroit Lions score 26.3 points a game and let in 24.4. New England Patriots score 23.6 and let in 19.1. Their recent games average 50.6 and 42.8 points in total, and the market line is 49.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Lions +8.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions: New England Patriots shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Detroit Lions host New England Patriots in the NFL on Sun 15 Nov, 09:30 at FC Bayern Munich Stadium. Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions is New England Patriots to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project New England Patriots 24.2 and Detroit Lions 24.2. Our best bet is Lions +8.5 at -297.

Detroit Lions form

Detroit Lions have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 525 points scored and 487 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

New England Patriots form

New England Patriots have 13 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 473 points scored and 382 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect New England Patriots to score about 24.2 points and Detroit Lions about 24.2. That points to New England Patriots to win. Our safest bet is Lions +8.5 at -297.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LionsPatriots
Games played2020
Wins1113
Losses96
Points scored525473
Points conceded487382
Scored per game26.323.6
Conceded per game24.419.1
Home record7W 3L8W 2L
Away record4W 6L5W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Lions to win45%+122+102-9.0%
Patriots to win48%+109-122-13.1%
Lions +1.550%+101-112-5.7%
Patriots -1.543%+132-108-17.1%
Over 49.5 points44%+128-110-16.3%
Under 49.5 points49%+104-110-6.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Lions spreadCoversFair
Lions -7.529%+245
Lions -3.540%+151
Lions -0.549%+106
Lions +2.557%-135
Lions +6.569%-218
Total pointsOverUnder
41.570%30%
45.559%41%
48.550%50%
51.541%59%
55.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Lions +3.5 wins if Lions win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Patriots Search for Takeaways After Loss to Chicago Bears

New England struggles with turnovers after a 30-24 loss to Chicago, looking ahead to Miami.

24 Oct 2026
NFL

Bears Edge Patriots 30-24 as Williams and Santos Deliver Late

Chicago held off New England behind big passing numbers from Caleb Williams and a late 58 yard field goal by Cairo Santos.

23 Oct 2026
NFL

Patriots Down Two Starting Guards for Chicago Matchup

New England will be without guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown on Thursday night against the Chicago Bears due to injuries.

21 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions is New England Patriots to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project New England Patriots 24.2 and Detroit Lions 24.2. Our best bet is Lions +8.5 at -297.

What is the projected score for New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?

We project New England Patriots 24.2 and Detroit Lions 24.2, about 48.4 points in total.

How are Detroit Lions playing?

Detroit Lions have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 525 points scored and 487 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are New England Patriots playing?

New England Patriots have 13 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 473 points scored and 382 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?

Lions +8.5 at -297, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lions against Patriots. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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