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Predictions › United States › New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
NFLSun 1 Nov, 16:25 United States time

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins prediction

Hard Rock Stadium

New England PatriotsAway
24.6 : 18.7
projected points
Miami DolphinsHome
76%Patriots
24%Dolphins
Eagle safe pickDolphins +14.5
-297

Quick answer

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins is New England Patriots to win, with a 76% chance. We project New England Patriots 24.6 and Miami Dolphins 18.7. Our best bet is Dolphins +14.5 at -297.

Prediction
New England Patriots to win
Chance
76%
Projected score
New England Patriots 25, Miami Dolphins 19
Projected total
43.3 points
Best bet
Dolphins +14.5 at -297

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Dolphins +14.5
75% chanceFair price -2971 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Miami Dolphins 24% and New England Patriots 76%. The bookmakers agree and make New England Patriots the favourite at -426.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Miami Dolphins won 0 of their last 5 and New England Patriots won 4 of their last 5. New England Patriots come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Miami Dolphins won 4 of their last 11 games at home. New England Patriots won 5 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Miami Dolphins score 16.6 points a game and let in 23.7. New England Patriots score 23.9 and let in 18.4. Their recent games average 40.3 and 42.3 points in total, and the market line is 44.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Miami Dolphins won 0 and New England Patriots won 2. The last one ended New England Patriots 38, Miami Dolphins 10.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Dolphins +14.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Patriotsteam news-4%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Miami Dolphins host New England Patriots in the NFL on Sun 1 Nov, 16:25 at Hard Rock Stadium. Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins is New England Patriots to win, with a 76% chance. We project New England Patriots 24.6 and Miami Dolphins 18.7. Our best bet is Dolphins +14.5 at -297.

Miami Dolphins form

Miami Dolphins have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 332 points scored and 474 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

New England Patriots form

New England Patriots have 14 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 478 points scored and 367 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Miami Dolphins won 0, New England Patriots won 2. Last time out it finished New England Patriots 38, Miami Dolphins 10.

Our call

We expect New England Patriots to score about 24.6 points and Miami Dolphins about 18.7. That points to New England Patriots to win. Our safest bet is Dolphins +14.5 at -297.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DolphinsPatriots
Games played2020
Wins614
Losses145
Points scored332478
Points conceded474367
Scored per game16.623.9
Conceded per game23.718.4
Home record4W 7L9W 2L
Away record2W 7L5W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Dolphins to win24%+310+330+4.8%
Patriots to win75%-308-426-6.8%
Dolphins +7.551%-102-105-1.3%
Patriots -7.544%+126-115-17.1%
Over 44.5 points45%+122-110-14.0%
Under 44.5 points50%+101-110-4.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Dolphins spreadCoversFair
Dolphins -1.529%+244
Dolphins +2.540%+151
Dolphins +5.549%+106
Dolphins +8.557%-135
Dolphins +12.569%-219
Total pointsOverUnder
36.570%30%
40.559%41%
43.550%50%
46.540%60%
50.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Dolphins +3.5 wins if Dolphins win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Patriots Down Two Starting Guards for Chicago Matchup

New England will be without guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown on Thursday night against the Chicago Bears due to injuries.

21 Oct 2026
NFL

Patriots Place Romeo Doubs on Injured Reserve

Romeo Doubs will miss at least four games for the Patriots after injuring his right shoulder on a touchdown catch.

19 Oct 2026
NFL

Mahomes Ties Tom Brady Record With 100th Career Victory

Patrick Mahomes reached 100 wins in 131 starts as Kansas City beat the Chargers 22-6 to stay undefeated.

19 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins?

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins is New England Patriots to win, with a 76% chance. We project New England Patriots 24.6 and Miami Dolphins 18.7. Our best bet is Dolphins +14.5 at -297.

What is the projected score for New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins?

We project New England Patriots 24.6 and Miami Dolphins 18.7, about 43.3 points in total.

How are Miami Dolphins playing?

Miami Dolphins have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 332 points scored and 474 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are New England Patriots playing?

New England Patriots have 14 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 478 points scored and 367 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots last met?

It ended New England Patriots 38, Miami Dolphins 10. In the last 2 meetings Miami Dolphins won 0 and New England Patriots won 2.

What is the best bet for New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins?

Dolphins +14.5 at -297, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dolphins against Patriots. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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