Predictions › Italy › Parma vs AS Roma

Serie ASat 21 Nov, 17:00 Italy time

Parma vs AS Roma prediction

Ennio Tardini

ParmaHome

0.83 : 2.23

expected goals

AS RomaAway

12%Parma

19%Draw

69%AS Roma

Eagle safe pickAS Roma draw no bet

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Parma vs AS Roma is AS Roma to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is AS Roma draw no bet at 1.18.

Prediction: AS Roma to win
Chance: 69%
Most likely score: 0-2
Expected goals: Parma 0.8, AS Roma 2.2
Best bet: AS Roma draw no bet at 1.18
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

AS Roma draw no bet

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AS Roma to win and Over 2.5

44% chanceFair price 2.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Parma 12%, the draw 19% and AS Roma 69%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Roma the favourite at 1.27.
2
Recent form
Parma took 4 points from their last 5 games and AS Roma took 10 from 5. AS Roma come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Parma won 3 of their last 11 games at home. AS Roma won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Parma score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. AS Roma score 2.7 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Parma games and 13 of AS Roma games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Parma won 0 and AS Roma won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Parma 2, AS Roma 3.
6
The safest bet
AS Roma draw no bet has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Parmarecent form-3%
AS Romarecent form+3%

Parma form L W D L LAS Roma form W L W W DHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Parma vs AS Roma: AS Roma are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Parma host AS Roma in the Serie A on Sat 21 Nov, 17:00 at Ennio Tardini. Our prediction for Parma vs AS Roma is AS Roma to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is AS Roma draw no bet at 1.18.

Parma form

Parma have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

AS Roma form

AS Roma have 14 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 54 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Parma won 0, AS Roma won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Parma 2, AS Roma 3.

Our call

We expect Parma to score about 0.8 goals and AS Roma about 2.2. That points to AS Roma to win, with 0-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is AS Roma draw no bet at 1.18. Our bold bet is AS Roma to win and Over 2.5 at 2.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Parma	AS Roma
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	14
Draws	4	4
Losses	11	2
Goals scored	16	54
Goals conceded	27	20
Scored per game	0.8	2.7
Conceded per game	1.4	1.0
Home record	3W 3D 5L	8W 1D 1L
Away record	2W 1D 6L	6W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	25%	55%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Parma to win	11%	8.84	8.00	-9.5%
A Draw	19%	5.41	5.00	-7.5%
AS Roma to win	69%	1.45	1.27	-12.4%
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.63	2.30	-12.4%
Under 3.5 goals	56%	1.79	1.54	-14.1%
Parma +1.5	47%	2.14	1.87	-12.5%
AS Roma -1.5	46%	2.16	1.77	-18.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.69
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.72
Both teams to score	51%	1.97
Parma or Draw	31%	3.20
AS Roma or Draw	88%	1.14
Parma to win and Over 2.5	7%	14.28
AS Roma to win and Over 2.5	47%	2.12
Parma clean sheet	11%	9.34
AS Roma clean sheet	44%	2.29

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-211.7%

0-19.9%

1-29.7%

1-19.2%

0-38.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Parma Dismiss Manager Carlos Cuesta After Slow Start to Serie A Season

Parma have parted ways with head coach Carlos Cuesta after winning just one of their opening five league matches this season.

27 Sept 2026

Premier League

Chelsea prepare new January bid for Roma midfielder Manu Kone

Chelsea are ready to renew their interest in Roma midfielder Manu Kone, while Liverpool and Manchester United eye other major targets.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Parma vs AS Roma?

Our prediction for Parma vs AS Roma is AS Roma to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is AS Roma draw no bet at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Parma vs AS Roma?

0-2 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Parma to score 0.8 goals and AS Roma 2.2.

Will both teams score in Parma vs AS Roma?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Parma last 20 games and 9 of AS Roma last 20.

How are Parma playing?

How are AS Roma playing?

What happened when Parma and AS Roma last met?

It ended Parma 2, AS Roma 3. In the last 2 meetings Parma won 0 and AS Roma won 2.

What is the best bet for Parma vs AS Roma?

AS Roma draw no bet at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Parma against AS Roma. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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