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Predictions › United Kingdom › Sunderland vs Brentford
Carabao CupWed 28 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Sunderland vs Brentford prediction

Stadium of Light

SunderlandHome
1.26 : 1.53
expected goals
BrentfordAway
31%Sunderland
27%Draw
43%Brentford
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Brentford is Brentford to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Brentford to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Sunderland 1.3, Brentford 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Brentford to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 11/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sunderland 31%, the draw 27% and Brentford 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Brentford the favourite at 11/10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sunderland took 6 points from their last 5 games and Brentford took 8 from 5. Brentford come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sunderland won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Brentford won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sunderland score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.5. Brentford score 1.7 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Sunderland games and 14 of Brentford games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Sunderland won 0 and Brentford won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Brentford 1, Sunderland 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sunderlandrecent form-1%
  • Brentfordrecent form+3%
  • Sunderlandrest between games-5%
  • Brentfordrest between games-5%
Sunderland form L W L L WBrentford form D D W W DHome edge in this league 5% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sunderland vs Brentford: Brentford shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sunderland host Brentford in the Carabao Cup on Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 at Stadium of Light. Our prediction for Sunderland vs Brentford is Brentford to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Sunderland form

Sunderland have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Brentford form

Brentford have 5 wins, 12 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sunderland won 0, Brentford won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Brentford 1, Sunderland 1.

Our call

We expect Sunderland to score about 1.3 goals and Brentford about 1.5. That points to Brentford to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Brentford to win and Over 2.5 at 11/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SunderlandBrentford
Games played2020
Wins85
Draws312
Losses93
Goals scored2234
Goals conceded3024
Scored per game1.11.7
Conceded per game1.51.2
Home record5W 1D 4L3W 5D 1L
Away record3W 2D 5L2W 7D 2L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Sunderland to win29%12/52/1-13.7%
A Draw25%3/19/4-16.2%
Brentford to win44%5/411/10-5.3%
Over 2.5 goals50%Evens4/5-11.8%
Under 2.5 goals47%11/1010/11-8.7%
Sunderland +0.552%10/118/13-15.9%
Brentford -0.544%5/411/10-7.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%2/7
Over 2.5 goals53%10/11
Over 3.5 goals31%9/4
Both teams to score57%8/11
Sunderland or Draw57%8/11
Brentford or Draw69%4/9
Sunderland to win and Over 2.519%9/2
Brentford to win and Over 2.527%11/4
Sunderland clean sheet22%7/2
Brentford clean sheet28%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%
1-29.1%
0-18.7%
2-17.4%
0-27.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Sangare Target Top Two Finish for Unbeaten Brentford

Mamadou Sangare wants Brentford to push for a top two Premier League finish after an unbeaten start to the season.

15 Oct 2026
Premier League

Premier League Panel Backs Controversial Referee Decisions

A Premier League panel has backed refereeing decisions in recent matches involving Manchester City and Everton.

30 Sept 2026
Premier League

Arsenal and Liverpool Lead Chase for Brentford Star Kevin Schade

Arsenal and Liverpool are tracking Brentford's Kevin Schade, while top clubs prepare bids for Alessandro Bastoni and Marcos Llorente.

26 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Brentford is Brentford to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Sunderland vs Brentford?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Sunderland to score 1.3 goals and Brentford 1.5.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Brentford?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Sunderland last 20 games and 13 of Brentford last 20.

How are Sunderland playing?

Sunderland have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Brentford playing?

Brentford have 5 wins, 12 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Sunderland and Brentford last met?

It ended Brentford 1, Sunderland 1. In the last 2 meetings Sunderland won 0 and Brentford won 1.

What is the best bet for Sunderland vs Brentford?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sunderland against Brentford. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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