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Predictions › United States › San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers
MLBSat 3 Oct, 00:00 United States time

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction

American Family Field

San Diego PadresAway
2.8 : 4.6
projected runs
Milwaukee BrewersHome
32%Padres
68%Brewers
Eagle safe pickBrewers to win
-226

Quick answer

Our prediction for San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers is Milwaukee Brewers to win, with a 68% chance. We project San Diego Padres 2.8 and Milwaukee Brewers 4.6. Our best bet is Brewers to win at -226.

Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Chance
68%
Projected score
San Diego Padres 3, Milwaukee Brewers 5
Projected total
7.4 runs
Best bet
Brewers to win at -226

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Brewers to win
68% chancePrice -2261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Milwaukee Brewers 68% and San Diego Padres 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Milwaukee Brewers the favourite at -226.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Milwaukee Brewers won 5 of their last 5 and San Diego Padres won 4 of their last 5. Milwaukee Brewers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Milwaukee Brewers won 8 of their last 9 games at home. San Diego Padres won 8 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Milwaukee Brewers score 5.8 runs a game and let in 3.9. San Diego Padres score 6.5 and let in 4.3. Their recent games average 9.7 and 10.8 runs in total, and the market line is 7.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Milwaukee Brewers won 1 and San Diego Padres won 4. The last one ended San Diego Padres 4, Milwaukee Brewers 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Brewers to win has a 68% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Padresrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee Brewers are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Milwaukee Brewers host San Diego Padres in the MLB on Sat 3 Oct, 00:00 at American Family Field. Our prediction for San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers is Milwaukee Brewers to win, with a 68% chance. We project San Diego Padres 2.8 and Milwaukee Brewers 4.6. Our best bet is Brewers to win at -226.

Milwaukee Brewers form

Milwaukee Brewers have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 117 runs scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

San Diego Padres form

San Diego Padres have 17 wins and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 129 runs scored and 86 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Milwaukee Brewers won 1, San Diego Padres won 4. Last time out it finished San Diego Padres 4, Milwaukee Brewers 3.

Our call

We expect San Diego Padres to score about 2.8 runs and Milwaukee Brewers about 4.6. That points to Milwaukee Brewers to win. Our safest bet is Brewers to win at -226.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BrewersPadres
Games played2020
Wins1517
Losses53
Runs scored117129
Runs conceded7786
Scored per game5.86.5
Conceded per game3.94.3
Home record8W 1L9W 1L
Away record7W 4L8W 2L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Brewers to win68%-208-226-2.6%
Padres to win32%+215+184-9.8%
Brewers -1.550%-101+105+2.9%
Padres +1.544%+128-126-21.3%
Over 7 runs51%-104-104+0.0%
Under 7 runs43%+132-115-19.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Brewers spreadCoversFair
Brewers -3.535%+188
Brewers -2.544%+128
Brewers -1.553%-114
Brewers -0.563%-167
Brewers +0.571%-247
Total runsOverUnder
5.567%33%
6.558%42%
7.549%51%
8.540%60%
9.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Brewers +3.5 wins if Brewers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Joe Musgrove Makes Surprise Return to Padres Postseason Roster

The San Diego Padres have added right handed pitcher Joe Musgrove to their wild card roster for the series against the Chicago Cubs.

29 Sept 2026
MLB

Christian Yelich Makes Milwaukee History as Brewers Name First Captain

The Milwaukee Brewers have named veteran Christian Yelich the first captain in franchise history ahead of the postseason.

27 Sept 2026
MLB

Padres Lock Up Home Field for Wild Card Series Against Cubs

The San Diego Padres beat Arizona 10-7 to secure the No. 4 seed and home advantage against the Chicago Cubs.

27 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers?

Our prediction for San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers is Milwaukee Brewers to win, with a 68% chance. We project San Diego Padres 2.8 and Milwaukee Brewers 4.6. Our best bet is Brewers to win at -226.

What is the projected score for San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers?

We project San Diego Padres 2.8 and Milwaukee Brewers 4.6, about 7.4 runs in total.

How are Milwaukee Brewers playing?

Milwaukee Brewers have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 117 runs scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are San Diego Padres playing?

San Diego Padres have 17 wins and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 129 runs scored and 86 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres last met?

It ended San Diego Padres 4, Milwaukee Brewers 3. In the last 5 meetings Milwaukee Brewers won 1 and San Diego Padres won 4.

What is the best bet for San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers?

Brewers to win at -226, with a 68% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Brewers against Padres. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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