New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Yankees +3.5

76% chanceFair price -3232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Rays -1.5

37% chancePrice +1671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Tampa Bay Rays 51% and New York Yankees 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Tampa Bay Rays the favourite at -133.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Tampa Bay Rays won 2 of their last 5 and New York Yankees won 4 of their last 5. New York Yankees come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Tampa Bay Rays won 8 of their last 9 games at home. New York Yankees won 3 of their last 6 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Tampa Bay Rays score 4.8 runs a game and let in 2.9. New York Yankees score 5.5 and let in 3.7. Their recent games average 7.7 and 9.3 runs in total, and the market line is 7.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, Tampa Bay Rays won 1 and New York Yankees won 4. The last one ended New York Yankees 6, Tampa Bay Rays 4.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Yankees +3.5 has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Rays +3.5 wins if Rays win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.