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Predictions › United States › New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
MLBMon 5 Oct, 20:00 United States time

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction

Tropicana Field

New York YankeesAway
3.9 : 3.8
projected runs
Tampa Bay RaysHome
54%Yankees
46%Rays
Eagle safe pickRays +2.5
-279

Quick answer

Our prediction for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays is New York Yankees to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Yankees 3.9 and Tampa Bay Rays 3.8. Our best bet is Rays +2.5 at -279.

Prediction
New York Yankees to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
New York Yankees 4, Tampa Bay Rays 4
Projected total
7.7 runs
Best bet
Rays +2.5 at -279

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Rays +2.5
74% chanceFair price -2791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Rays 46% and New York Yankees 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Rays won 2 of their last 5 and New York Yankees won 4 of their last 5. New York Yankees come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Rays won 8 of their last 9 games at home. New York Yankees won 3 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Rays score 4.8 runs a game and let in 2.9. New York Yankees score 5.5 and let in 3.7. Their recent games average 7.7 and 9.3 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Tampa Bay Rays won 1 and New York Yankees won 4. The last one ended New York Yankees 6, Tampa Bay Rays 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Rays +2.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Yankeesrest between games-5%
  • Yankeesteam news-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: New York Yankees shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Rays host New York Yankees in the MLB on Mon 5 Oct, 20:00 at Tropicana Field. Our prediction for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays is New York Yankees to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Yankees 3.9 and Tampa Bay Rays 3.8. Our best bet is Rays +2.5 at -279.

Tampa Bay Rays form

Tampa Bay Rays have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 95 runs scored and 58 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

New York Yankees form

New York Yankees have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 111 runs scored and 74 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Tampa Bay Rays won 1, New York Yankees won 4. Last time out it finished New York Yankees 6, Tampa Bay Rays 4.

Our call

We expect New York Yankees to score about 3.9 runs and Tampa Bay Rays about 3.8. That points to New York Yankees to win. Our safest bet is Rays +2.5 at -279.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RaysYankees
Games played2020
Wins1314
Losses76
Runs scored95111
Runs conceded5874
Scored per game4.85.5
Conceded per game2.93.7
Home record8W 1L11W 3L
Away record5W 6L3W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Rays spreadCoversFair
Rays -1.535%+186
Rays -0.544%+127
Rays +0.554%-115
Rays +1.563%-169
Rays +2.571%-250
Total runsOverUnder
5.569%31%
6.561%39%
7.552%48%
8.543%57%
9.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Rays +3.5 wins if Rays win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Yankees Crush Red Sox 9-0 as Rice and Schlittler Dominate Game 1

Ben Rice drove in six runs and Cam Schlittler dominated on the mound as the New York Yankees shut out the Boston Red Sox 9-0.

30 Sept 2026
MLB

Phillies Clinch Wild Card Berth on Final Day After Treacherous Week

The Philadelphia Phillies beat the Tampa Bay Rays 7-3 on Sunday to secure the final National League wild card spot.

27 Sept 2026
MLB

Yankees Regular Season Ends Early in Rainout Ahead of Boston Series

The regular season finale between the Yankees and Orioles was canceled due to rain, as New York prepares for a wild card matchup with Boston.

27 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays?

Our prediction for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays is New York Yankees to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Yankees 3.9 and Tampa Bay Rays 3.8. Our best bet is Rays +2.5 at -279.

What is the projected score for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays?

We project New York Yankees 3.9 and Tampa Bay Rays 3.8, about 7.7 runs in total.

How are Tampa Bay Rays playing?

Tampa Bay Rays have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 95 runs scored and 58 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are New York Yankees playing?

New York Yankees have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 111 runs scored and 74 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees last met?

It ended New York Yankees 6, Tampa Bay Rays 4. In the last 5 meetings Tampa Bay Rays won 1 and New York Yankees won 4.

What is the best bet for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays?

Rays +2.5 at -279, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rays against Yankees. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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