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Predictions › Italy › AC Milan vs Atalanta
Serie ASun 18 Oct, 16:00 Italy time

AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction

San Siro

AC MilanHome
1.64 : 1.10
expected goals
AtalantaAway
49%Milan
26%Draw
25%Atalanta
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Atalanta is AC Milan to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
AC Milan to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AC Milan 1.6, Atalanta 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AC Milan to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.321 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AC Milan 49%, the draw 26% and Atalanta 25%. The bookmakers agree and make AC Milan the favourite at 1.83.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AC Milan took 8 points from their last 5 games and Atalanta took 6 from 5. AC Milan come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AC Milan won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Atalanta won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AC Milan score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Atalanta score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of AC Milan games and 11 of Atalanta games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AC Milan won 0 and Atalanta won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended AC Milan 2, Atalanta 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Milanrecent form+1%
  • Atalantarecent form-1%
Milan form W L D D WAtalanta form L L L W WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AC Milan vs Atalanta: AC Milan are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AC Milan host Atalanta in the Serie A on Sun 18 Oct, 16:00 at San Siro. Our prediction for AC Milan vs Atalanta is AC Milan to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

AC Milan form

AC Milan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

Atalanta form

Atalanta have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AC Milan won 0, Atalanta won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished AC Milan 2, Atalanta 3.

Our call

We expect AC Milan to score about 1.6 goals and Atalanta about 1.1. That points to AC Milan to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is AC Milan to win and Over 2.5 at 3.32.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MilanAtalanta
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws45
Losses89
Goals scored2326
Goals conceded2332
Scored per game1.11.3
Conceded per game1.11.6
Home record4W 2D 5L4W 2D 4L
Away record4W 2D 3L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored40%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
AC Milan to win46%2.181.83-16.1%
A Draw26%3.923.45-12.0%
Atalanta to win25%4.083.75-8.1%
Over 2.5 goals50%2.021.71-15.0%
Under 2.5 goals44%2.292.00-12.7%
AC Milan -0.547%2.131.77-17.0%
Atalanta +0.546%2.161.83-15.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.31
Over 2.5 goals52%1.94
Over 3.5 goals29%3.39
Both teams to score55%1.83
AC Milan or Draw75%1.33
Atalanta or Draw51%1.96
AC Milan to win and Over 2.531%3.27
Atalanta to win and Over 2.515%6.85
AC Milan clean sheet33%3.01
Atalanta clean sheet19%5.13

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
1-09.9%
2-19.5%
2-08.6%
0-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Former Man United Boss Apologizes to Fan Who Refuses to Cut His Hair

Former Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim apologized to viral fan Frank Ilett, who refuses to cut his hair until the team wins five games in a row.

25 Sept 2026
Premier League

Former Man United boss Ruben Amorim vows to adapt tactics at AC Milan

Ruben Amorim says he will adapt his tactics at AC Milan to avoid repeating the mistakes that cost him his job at Manchester United.

21 Sept 2026
Serie A

AC Milan and Inter Prepare to Say Goodbye to the Iconic San Siro

As the iconic San Siro celebrates its 100th anniversary, AC Milan and Inter are preparing to build a brand new home.

18 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AC Milan vs Atalanta?

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Atalanta is AC Milan to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for AC Milan vs Atalanta?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect AC Milan to score 1.6 goals and Atalanta 1.1.

Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Atalanta?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of AC Milan last 20 games and 13 of Atalanta last 20.

How are AC Milan playing?

AC Milan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Atalanta playing?

Atalanta have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when AC Milan and Atalanta last met?

It ended AC Milan 2, Atalanta 3. In the last 2 meetings AC Milan won 0 and Atalanta won 1.

What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Atalanta?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Milan against Atalanta. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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