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Predictions › United States › Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons
NFLSun 11 Oct, 20:20 United States time

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons prediction

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Baltimore RavensAway
27.7 : 20.8
projected points
Atlanta FalconsHome
71%Ravens
29%Falcons
Eagle safe pickRavens to win
-278

Quick answer

Our prediction for Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons is Baltimore Ravens to win, with a 71% chance. We project Baltimore Ravens 27.7 and Atlanta Falcons 20.8. Our best bet is Ravens to win at -278.

Prediction
Baltimore Ravens to win
Chance
71%
Projected score
Baltimore Ravens 28, Atlanta Falcons 21
Projected total
48.5 points
Best bet
Ravens to win at -278

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Ravens to win
73% chancePrice -2781 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlanta Falcons 29% and Baltimore Ravens 71%. The bookmakers agree and make Baltimore Ravens the favourite at -278.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlanta Falcons won 3 of their last 5 and Baltimore Ravens won 4 of their last 5. Baltimore Ravens come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlanta Falcons won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Baltimore Ravens won 8 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Atlanta Falcons score 21.0 points a game and let in 22.8. Baltimore Ravens score 24.1 and let in 19.6. Their recent games average 43.8 and 43.8 points in total, and the market line is 49.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Ravens to win has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ravensteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons: Baltimore Ravens are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlanta Falcons host Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sun 11 Oct, 20:20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our prediction for Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons is Baltimore Ravens to win, with a 71% chance. We project Baltimore Ravens 27.7 and Atlanta Falcons 20.8. Our best bet is Ravens to win at -278.

Atlanta Falcons form

Atlanta Falcons have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 420 points scored and 455 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Baltimore Ravens form

Baltimore Ravens have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 483 points scored and 393 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Baltimore Ravens to score about 27.7 points and Atlanta Falcons about 20.8. That points to Baltimore Ravens to win. Our safest bet is Ravens to win at -278.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FalconsRavens
Games played2020
Wins1012
Losses108
Points scored420483
Points conceded455393
Scored per game21.024.1
Conceded per game22.819.6
Home record4W 5L4W 6L
Away record6W 5L8W 2L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Falcons to win29%+248+225-6.5%
Ravens to win73%-269-278-0.9%
Falcons +644%+126-110-15.5%
Ravens -650%+101-110-4.9%
Over 49.5 points44%+127-110-15.9%
Under 49.5 points50%-100-110-4.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Falcons spreadCoversFair
Falcons -0.529%+245
Falcons +3.540%+151
Falcons +6.549%+106
Falcons +9.557%-135
Falcons +13.569%-218
Total pointsOverUnder
41.570%30%
45.559%41%
48.550%50%
51.541%59%
55.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Falcons +3.5 wins if Falcons win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Ravens Desperate to End Home Losing Streak Against Titans

The Baltimore Ravens are trying to snap a four-game home losing streak on Sunday when they host the Tennessee Titans.

16 hours ago
NFL

Atlanta Falcons Secure Gervon Dexter Sr. With Big Four Year Extension

The Atlanta Falcons have signed defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. to a four year, $78 million extension to keep him anchoring their pass rush.

30 Sept 2026
NFL

Ravens Lose Starting Center Jovaughn Gwyn for Months After Leg Injury

Baltimore Ravens starting center Jovaughn Gwyn is expected to miss two to three months with a fractured fibula, leaving the team thin at the position.

30 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons?

Our prediction for Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons is Baltimore Ravens to win, with a 71% chance. We project Baltimore Ravens 27.7 and Atlanta Falcons 20.8. Our best bet is Ravens to win at -278.

What is the projected score for Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons?

We project Baltimore Ravens 27.7 and Atlanta Falcons 20.8, about 48.5 points in total.

How are Atlanta Falcons playing?

Atlanta Falcons have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 420 points scored and 455 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Baltimore Ravens playing?

Baltimore Ravens have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 483 points scored and 393 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons?

Ravens to win at -278, with a 73% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Falcons against Ravens. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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