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Predictions › United Kingdom › Liverpool vs Manchester City
Premier LeagueSun 11 Oct, 16:30 United Kingdom time

Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction

Anfield

LiverpoolHome
1.42 : 1.53
expected goals
Manchester CityAway
35%Liverpool
26%Draw
39%Man City
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester City is Manchester City to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Manchester City to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Liverpool 1.4, Manchester City 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Manchester City to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Liverpool 35%, the draw 26% and Manchester City 39%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Liverpool the favourite at 6/4, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Liverpool took 13 points from their last 5 games and Manchester City took 15 from 5. Manchester City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Liverpool won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Manchester City won 7 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Liverpool score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Manchester City score 2.4 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Liverpool games and 13 of Manchester City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Liverpool won 0 and Manchester City won 3 with 0 draws. The last one ended Manchester City 4, Liverpool 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Liverpoolrecent form+6%
  • Man Cityrecent form+7%
  • Liverpoolteam news-3%
Liverpool form W W D W WMan City form W W W W WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Liverpool host Manchester City in the Premier League on Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 at Anfield. Our prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester City is Manchester City to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Manchester City form

Manchester City have 16 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Liverpool won 0, Manchester City won 3 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Manchester City 4, Liverpool 0.

Our call

We expect Liverpool to score about 1.4 goals and Manchester City about 1.5. That points to Manchester City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Manchester City to win and Over 2.5 at 3/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LiverpoolMan City
Games played2020
Wins816
Draws62
Losses62
Goals scored3147
Goals conceded2815
Scored per game1.62.4
Conceded per game1.40.8
Home record5W 5D 1L9W 0D 2L
Away record3W 1D 5L7W 2D 0L
Clean sheets25%55%
Both teams scored60%45%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Liverpool to win33%2/16/4-16.8%
A Draw25%3/113/5-9.0%
Manchester City to win37%7/46/4-5.5%
Over 2.5 goals56%4/58/15-13.9%
Under 2.5 goals38%13/811/8-10.1%
Liverpool -0.536%9/55/4-17.4%
Manchester City +0.560%4/61/2-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1/4
Over 2.5 goals57%4/5
Over 3.5 goals34%15/8
Both teams to score60%4/6
Liverpool or Draw61%4/6
Manchester City or Draw65%8/15
Liverpool to win and Over 2.523%10/3
Manchester City to win and Over 2.526%11/4
Liverpool clean sheet22%7/2
Manchester City clean sheet24%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
1-28.7%
2-18.1%
0-17.3%
1-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Neville Says Premier League Integrity Damaged By Man City Financial Verdict

Former defender Gary Neville says the Premier League is being dragged through the mud following Manchester City's guilty verdict over financial breaches.

9 hours ago
Premier League

Carragher Demands Man City Owners Sell Club After Financial Verdict

Jamie Carragher says Manchester City owners must sell the club following their guilty verdict for breaching Premier League financial rules.

9 hours ago
Premier League

Klopp Refuses to Speculate on Man City Ruling Ahead of Germany Clash

Jürgen Klopp is waiting to see how Manchester City's financial rules verdict plays out as he prepares Germany to face Serbia in the Nations League.

22 hours ago

Questions people ask

Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester City is Manchester City to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Liverpool to score 1.4 goals and Manchester City 1.5.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Liverpool last 20 games and 9 of Manchester City last 20.

How are Liverpool playing?

Liverpool have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Manchester City playing?

Manchester City have 16 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Liverpool and Manchester City last met?

It ended Manchester City 4, Liverpool 0. In the last 3 meetings Liverpool won 0 and Manchester City won 3.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Liverpool against Man City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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