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Predictions › Italy › Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Serie ASun 11 Oct, 16:00 Italy time

Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction

Mapei Stadium

SassuoloHome
1.12 : 1.64
expected goals
AC MilanAway
25%Sassuolo
26%Draw
49%Milan
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sassuolo vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
AC Milan to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Sassuolo 1.1, AC Milan 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AC Milan to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.381 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sassuolo 25%, the draw 26% and AC Milan 49%. The bookmakers agree and make AC Milan the favourite at 1.74.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sassuolo took 7 points from their last 5 games and AC Milan took 8 from 5. AC Milan come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sassuolo won 7 of their last 10 games at home. AC Milan won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sassuolo score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.5. AC Milan score 1.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Sassuolo games and 8 of AC Milan games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Sassuolo won 1 and AC Milan won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Sassuolo 2, AC Milan 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sassuolorecent form+3%
  • Milanrecent form+1%
Sassuolo form L W D W WMilan form W L D D WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sassuolo vs AC Milan: AC Milan are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sassuolo host AC Milan in the Serie A on Sun 11 Oct, 16:00 at Mapei Stadium. Our prediction for Sassuolo vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Sassuolo form

Sassuolo have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

AC Milan form

AC Milan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Sassuolo won 1, AC Milan won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Sassuolo 2, AC Milan 0.

Our call

We expect Sassuolo to score about 1.1 goals and AC Milan about 1.6. That points to AC Milan to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is AC Milan to win and Over 2.5 at 3.38.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SassuoloMilan
Games played2020
Wins88
Draws34
Losses98
Goals scored2823
Goals conceded3023
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.51.1
Home record7W 0D 3L4W 2D 5L
Away record1W 3D 6L4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets15%30%
Both teams scored70%40%
Over 2.5 goals75%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Sassuolo to win25%4.043.95-2.1%
A Draw25%3.943.55-10.0%
AC Milan to win46%2.181.74-20.2%
Over 2.5 goals49%2.031.77-12.9%
Under 2.5 goals45%2.231.95-12.5%
Sassuolo +0.546%2.191.91-12.9%
AC Milan -0.548%2.061.71-16.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.92
Over 3.5 goals30%3.35
Both teams to score55%1.82
Sassuolo or Draw51%1.95
AC Milan or Draw75%1.34
Sassuolo to win and Over 2.515%6.69
AC Milan to win and Over 2.531%3.28
Sassuolo clean sheet19%5.14
AC Milan clean sheet33%3.06

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
0-19.7%
1-29.5%
0-28.5%
0-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Former Man United Boss Apologizes to Fan Who Refuses to Cut His Hair

Former Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim apologized to viral fan Frank Ilett, who refuses to cut his hair until the team wins five games in a row.

25 Sept 2026
Premier League

Former Man United boss Ruben Amorim vows to adapt tactics at AC Milan

Ruben Amorim says he will adapt his tactics at AC Milan to avoid repeating the mistakes that cost him his job at Manchester United.

21 Sept 2026
Serie A

AC Milan and Inter Prepare to Say Goodbye to the Iconic San Siro

As the iconic San Siro celebrates its 100th anniversary, AC Milan and Inter are preparing to build a brand new home.

18 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

Our prediction for Sassuolo vs AC Milan is AC Milan to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Sassuolo to score 1.1 goals and AC Milan 1.6.

Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Sassuolo last 20 games and 8 of AC Milan last 20.

How are Sassuolo playing?

Sassuolo have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

How are AC Milan playing?

AC Milan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Sassuolo and AC Milan last met?

It ended Sassuolo 2, AC Milan 0. In the last 2 meetings Sassuolo won 1 and AC Milan won 0.

What is the best bet for Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sassuolo against Milan. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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